Recent polls, including CNT/MDA on April 14 showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 44.9% versus Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 40.2% in a simulated runoff, and Nexus/BTG Pactual on April 15 indicating a 46-46 tie, underscore the razor-thin trader consensus for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election first round, with Lula at 39.5% and Flávio at 38.2%. Lula's approval has dipped to 44% amid economic headwinds and high disapproval, enabling Flávio—Jair Bolsonaro's son and right-wing frontrunner—to consolidate conservative support in a fragmented field. The race remains deadlocked due to polarized voter bases and steady polling averages; catalysts like economic rebounds, scandals, key endorsements, or Lula's health could tip the balance toward a decisive second-round matchup.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40%
Flávio Bolsonaro 38.1%
Renan Santos 6.3%
Fernando Haddad 4.3%
$53,302,351 Vol.
$53,302,351 Vol.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
40%
Flávio Bolsonaro
38%
Renan Santos
6%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Romeu Zema
4%
Camilo Santana
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40%
Flávio Bolsonaro 38.1%
Renan Santos 6.3%
Fernando Haddad 4.3%
$53,302,351 Vol.
$53,302,351 Vol.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
40%
Flávio Bolsonaro
38%
Renan Santos
6%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Romeu Zema
4%
Camilo Santana
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls, including CNT/MDA on April 14 showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 44.9% versus Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's 40.2% in a simulated runoff, and Nexus/BTG Pactual on April 15 indicating a 46-46 tie, underscore the razor-thin trader consensus for Brazil's October 4, 2026, presidential election first round, with Lula at 39.5% and Flávio at 38.2%. Lula's approval has dipped to 44% amid economic headwinds and high disapproval, enabling Flávio—Jair Bolsonaro's son and right-wing frontrunner—to consolidate conservative support in a fragmented field. The race remains deadlocked due to polarized voter bases and steady polling averages; catalysts like economic rebounds, scandals, key endorsements, or Lula's health could tip the balance toward a decisive second-round matchup.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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