Name: Boeing whistleblower foul play determined in March?
Start: 2024-03-12T00:58:30.672Z
End: 2024-03-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if an official investigation by a law enforcement agency or a court ruling determines that the March 11 case of Boeing whistleblower John Barnett involved foul play by March 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.

This includes findings from the police, FBI, or any court indicating that the March 11 incident was caused by intentional physical harm from another party.

Note: determinations that the Boeing whistleblower incident likely involved foul play will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any government agency, law enforcement agencies and courts.

Boeing whistleblower foul play determined in March?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Se confirma juego sucio en el caso de Jeffrey Epstein antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

Federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters (See: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/11/business/federal-prosecutors-criminal-investigation-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this criminal investigation into Jerome Powell is dropped by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Official statements from Donald Trump or other Trump Administration officials will only suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” if they definitively indicate that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment. Suggestions, informal statements, statements that there will be no charges for now, or other statements that do not meet this standard will not alone qualify.

If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation, within this market’s timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Trump abandona la investigación de Powell antes del 28 de febrero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, his administration (including any executive branch department, agency, or office), or the United States federal government files a lawsuit against Jerome Powell, in his personal or official capacity, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The lawsuit must be filed in a U.S. federal or state court and must name Jerome Powell as a defendant.

An announcement of a lawsuit will NOT qualify for a “Yes” resolution; a lawsuit must actually be filed.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant U.S. federal court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Demandará Trump a Powell antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any state or federally elected Minnesota politician for fraud, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Será acusado algún político de Minnesota de fraude antes del 31 de marzo?

BitBoy was recently arrested due to a warrant issued for threatening communications he sent to a Judge. You can read more about that here: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/22059661159362

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BitBoy (Ben Armstrong) is convicted of any charges related to the emails he sent to Judge Kimberly Childs, by March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Convictions must be for criminal charges.

If the case is completely dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation occurs in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".

Once an individual is convicted it qualifies for an immediate "Yes" resolution, regardless of later appeals, etc. This market will resolve based on the first conviction in a qualifying case.

The primary resolution source will be official court records, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿BitBoy fue condenado?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of former Department of Justice Special Prosecutor Jack Smith by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jack Smith charged by March 31?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of EA currently scheduled to take place on February 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

¿Dirá EA "Shutdown" o "Shut Down" durante la llamada de resultados?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if previously unreleased documents containing evidence that Jeffrey Epstein blackmailed any individual are made public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Blackmail is defined as any use or attempted use of compromising materials or information (such as photos, videos, documents, or incriminating knowledge) to coerce, extort, manipulate, or otherwise gain leverage over a specific person or persons.

Qualifying evidence that Epstein blackmailed any individual requires one of the following:

- A direct statement within the newly released files demonstrating that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group. 

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that the newly released files show that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that Epstein used any materials released as part of the newly released files for blackmail.

General references to Epstein possessing damaging information, vague insinuations, or speculative commentary will not qualify.

Mentions of “leverage,” “influence,” “favors,” or similar language will not qualify unless clearly tied to the use or attempted use of compromising materials for blackmail as defined in this market.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the content of any released files and a consensus of credible reporting.


¿Se publicarán las pruebas de chantaje de Epstein antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Tim Walz en la cárcel para el 31 de diciembre?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Governor Tim Walz by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Se presentarán cargos contra Tim Walz antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

¿Ataque estadounidense a Cuba antes del 31 de diciembre?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of PayPal currently scheduled to take place on February 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will PayPal say "Bank" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if previously unreleased documents containing evidence that Jeffrey Epstein blackmailed a politician are made public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Blackmail is defined as any use or attempted use of compromising materials or information (such as photos, videos, documents, or incriminating knowledge) to coerce, extort, manipulate, or otherwise gain leverage over a specific person or persons.

Qualifying evidence that Epstein blackmailed any individual requires one of the following:

- A direct statement within the newly released files demonstrating that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that the newly released files show that Epstein blackmailed any individual or group.

- A clear consensus of credible reporting indicating that Epstein used any materials released as part of the newly released files for blackmail.

General references to Epstein possessing damaging information, vague insinuations, or speculative commentary will not qualify.

Mentions of “leverage,” “influence,” “favors,” or similar language will not qualify unless clearly tied to the use or attempted use of compromising materials for blackmail as defined in this market.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the content of any released files and a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Se publicaron pruebas de que Epstein chantajeó a políticos antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Colombia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

¿Ataque estadounidense a Colombia antes del 31 de diciembre?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Supreme Court will be considered to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States if they issue a decision in Trump v. Slaughter overruling or substantially limiting Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935), including ruling that the President may remove FTC commissioners at will.

If the Supreme court ruling in Trump v. Slaughter affirms that for-cause removal protections for FTC commissioners remain constitutional or if the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Trump v. Slaughter is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Jerome Powell será acusado federalmente antes del 30 de junio?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of GE Vernova currently scheduled to take place on January 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will GE Vernova say "Data Center" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to Jeffrey Epstein between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any release will qualify, including re-releases, partial releases, unsubstantive materials, or documents whose contents were already known from prior reporting.

Qualifying releases must be made by the Executive Branch itself, such as through an official government website, press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions solely to courts, Congress, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible.

The following will not qualify:
-Announcements of releases that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe.
-Releases made exclusively by courts, Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch.
-Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Liberará la administración Trump más archivos relacionados con Epstein antes del 28 de febrero?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally brings criminal charges against, or announces a criminal indictment of, Don Lemon between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from U.S. governmental or court sources; however, a broad consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Se presentarán cargos penales contra Don Lemon?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Ryanair currently scheduled to take place on January 26, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Ryanair say "ATC" or "Air Traffic Control" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.




¿Clavicular cargado para el 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Olympic snowboarder Ryan Wedding is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


¿Ryan Wedding arrestado antes del 30 de junio?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Google currently scheduled to take place on February 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Google say "Gemini 3" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Luigi Mangione lo intentó antes de 2027?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Nebius currently forecasted to take place on February 18, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Nebius say "Nvidia" during earnings call?

On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting, for any alleged crime relating to the shooting, between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For a “Yes” resolution, the charged individual does not need to be an active ICE officer at the time the charges are made, as long as they were the shooter in the specified event.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Se cobrará al tirador de ICE antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

¿Ataque de Estados Unidos a México antes del 31 de diciembre?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Tom Lee by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Tom Lee charged by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, any sitting member of the United States Congress resigns or is removed from their congressional seat and the cause of their departure is attributed to information contained in files related to Jeffrey Epstein released by the federal government during this market’s timeframe. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying resignation or removal must be caused by information included in newly released Epstein-related files. The cause of resignation or removal may be established through official statements from the departing Member of Congress or through a clear consensus of credible reporting. Resignations or removals driven by information already public before November 18, 2025, or by reasons unrelated to the content of the released Epstein-related files, will not qualify.

An announcement of resignation or removal made before April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET will qualify, even if the departure becomes effective afterward.

Only the resignation of a U.S. representative or Senator will count. The resignation or removal of a delegate to congress who does not hold full voting powers, e.g. Stacey Plaskett, will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from the departing Member of Congress and a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Miembro del Congreso de EE. UU. fuera por los archivos de Epstein antes del 30 de abril?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Jerome Powell será arrestado antes del 31 de marzo?

The Afghan man Rahmanullah Lakanwal, who allegedly shot two National Guard members in Washington D.C. on November 26, is rumored to have been blackmailed into the shooting by the Taliban.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed, by either relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies or a consensus of credible reporting, that Lakanwal was blackmailed by the Taliban to commit this shooting by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, blackmail refers to members of the Taliban coercing Lakanwal to commit the shooting or a similar act by threatening Lakanwal or his family/friends. General encouragement or instruction from the Taliban, without coercion, will not qualify.

This market will resolve once official statements from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies, or a consensus of credible reporting, have clearly confirmed whether Lakanwal was blackmailed by the Taliban.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant U.S. law enforcement agencies; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Se confirma el chantaje talibán al tirador de D.C. para el 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Renunciará Trump antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Será adquirida Ubisoft antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:

- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.
- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.
- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.
- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.
- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.

If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open  to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Fracasará Deutsche Bank antes del 30 de junio de 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court issues an official ruling in the case Donald J. Trump, et al., v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc. by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official ruling on the case is defined as any decision on the merits of the case issued by the Supreme Court, including but not limited to a written opinion, summary disposition, or per curiam opinion.

If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed for mootness, vacated and remanded without a decision on the merits, withdrawn or settled, otherwise concluded without a final merits judgment, or there has been no qualifying ruling for this case by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Decidirá la Corte Suprema sobre los aranceles de Trump antes del 20 de febrero?

On January 7, 2026, an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer committed a shooting in Minneapolis (see: https://apnews.com/article/minnesota-immigration-enforcement-shooting-crackdown-surge-173e00fa7388054e98c3b5b9417c1e5a).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ICE Officer who fired the shots in the specified shooting ceases to be an employee of ICE for any length of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of the officer’s resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from ICE and the U.S. federal government; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿ICE Shooter despedido/renuncia antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve based on the next earnings announcement of Tesla currently scheduled to take place on January 28, 2026 at 5:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A Q&A event will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitely cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be audio of the event.

Will Tesla say "Robotaxi" during earnings call?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook ceases to be CEO of Apple for any length of time between November 20, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Tim Cook's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Apple and/or Tim Cook, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Tim Cook dejará de ser el CEO de Apple antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between "25 bps decrease" and "No change", "25 bps decrease" becomes the favorite in the market "Fed decision in March?" (https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-march-885) for any four-hour period ending by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

"25 bps decrease" will be considered to have become the favorite for any four-hour period if it is ahead of "No change" in the majority of individual minutes during a qualifying time period. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice.

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. If a listed option resolves “Yes,” this market will resolve immediately in favor of the corresponding market. Accordingly, if a listed option resolves “No,” this market will resolve in favor of the other option. If both options simultaneously resolve in the same direction, such as in the case of a negrisk market in which another option resolves “Yes”, this market will resolve 50-50. 

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the "Fed decision in March?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/will-cut-flip-pause-for-march-fed-decision-by-february-28 or through the “Get Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour period window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.

Derivado de la Fed de marzo: ¿un recorte de 25 puntos básicos supera la opción de "pausa" para el 28 de febrero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States issues a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise overturns the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit’s August 29, 2025 decision in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, in which the Federal Circuit held that the tariffs imposed by Executive Orders 14193, 14194, 14195, 14257, and 14266 exceeded the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." 

If the Supreme Court dismisses the case as improvidently granted, denies certiorari, grants/vacates/remands without deciding the merits of IEEPA authorization, affirms by an equally divided Court, or vacates due to mootness, or if the parties settle the case this market will resolve to "No." 

For purposes of this market, the government prevails if the Supreme Court rules on the merits that the tariffs are authorized under IEEPA, or otherwise reverses or vacates the Federal Circuit’s holding that they are unauthorized under IEEPA, regardless of whether the Court remands for further proceedings on issues such as remedy or scope of relief. The government does not prevail if the Supreme Court affirms the Federal Circuit’s decision that the tariffs are unauthorized by IEEPA, even if the Court modifies or vacates portions of the judgment relating only to remedy or injunctive relief.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 


¿La Corte Suprema falla a favor de los aranceles de Trump?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bill or Hillary Clinton (or both Bill and Hillary Clinton) are held in contempt of Congress by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Bill or Hillary Clinton will be considered to be held in contempt of Congress once a full chamber vote of the House of Representatives or Senate votes to approve a resolution (or other measure) holding them in contempt of Congress. A qualifying vote within this market’s timeframe will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of any subsequent appeals or challenges it may face or whether or not the Department of Justice prosecutes the matter.

The approval of a contempt of Congress resolution by the full chamber of the House of Representatives or Senate without a vote (e.g. approval through unanimous consent) will count.

Committee votes or other procedural steps prior to a full senate or house vote on a contempt of Congress resolution will not count.

The primary resolution sources will be official information from the United States Congress; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Cloudflare may classify as Critical.

Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe.

If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official impact classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Boeing whistleblower foul play determined in March?

Contexto del Mercado

Boeing whistleblower foul play determined in March?

Reglas

Boeing whistleblower foul play determined in March?

Contexto del Mercado

Boeing whistleblower foul play determined in March?

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