Name: All New Orleans escapees captured in May?
Start: 2025-05-22T21:22:25.95646Z
End: 2025-05-31T12:00:00Z

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On Friday, May 16, ten inmates escaped from a jail in New Orleans. Five have since been captured, however five remain at large. You can read more about that here: https://www.nytimes.com/article/new-orleans-jail-escape-inmates.html

This market will resolve to "Yes" if all of the remaining five escapees are placed physically into the custody of any law enforcement agency by May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be information from relevant government authorities.

All New Orleans escapees captured in May?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if anyone on the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list (https://www.fbi.gov/wanted/topten) is captured by United States law enforcement authorities between market issuance and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

A fugitive being captured is defined as the fugitive being arrested by United States law enforcement authorities, voluntarily surrendering to United States law enforcement authorities, being extradited by a non-US entity to United States law enforcement authorities, or otherwise being taken into formal custody by United States law enforcement authorities. 

An individual on the FBI Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list being captured by a non-US entity, without subsequent extradition or equivalent transfer into United States law enforcement custody, will not count. Captures by United States forces overseas will count.

Only individuals who are on the FBI Ten Most Wanted Fugitives list at the time of their capture will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from United States law enforcement authorities and/or United States local, state or federal government entities; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Será capturado un fugitivo de la lista de los diez más buscados del FBI antes de junio de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". 

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Nicolás Maduro liberado de custodia antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former New York City mayor Eric Adams is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Eric Adams arrested by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cilia Flores is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Cilia Flores is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Cilia Flores is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Cilia Flores to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". 

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Cilia Flores será liberada de la custodia antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bill Clinton serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and January 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Bill Clinton en la cárcel para el 31 de enero?

Hong Kong Businessman Jimmy Lai is in custody after being convicted of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/jimmy-lai-verdict-live-hong-kong-court-rule-after-democracy-activists-landmark-2025-12-14/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jimmy Lai is released from custody by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Lai is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Lai is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Lai to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Extradition of Lai to another country where he remains in custody will also not count.

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Jimmy Lai será liberado antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


¿Elección francesa convocada para el 30 de junio de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is widely and credibly confirmed that the operation to capture Nicolás Maduro was staged or pre-arranged with Maduro (i.e., facilitated, permitted, or agreed to in advance such that Maduro’s capture was not the result of an adversarial raid) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government claiming that the operation was staged or pre-arranged will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If no broad consensus has been reached by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Verificación de hechos: la captura de Maduro fue simulada?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stefon Diggs serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Stefon Diggs en la cárcel antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Tim Walz en la cárcel para el 31 de diciembre?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between September 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Macron fuera para el 30 de junio de 2026?

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

¿Trump deportará a 750,000 o más personas en 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Clavicular en la cárcel para el 31 de enero?

On January 12, 2026, New York State Nurses Association (NYSNA) nurses began the largest nurse strike in New York City history, with over 15,000 nurses striking across the Montefiore, Mount Sinai, and New York-Presbyterian hospital systems (see:https://www.nysna.org/news/nysna-update-january-16-2026)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the NYSNA New York City nurses strike ends by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The strike will be considered to have ended if an agreement is reached between NYSNA and all the relevant hospitals/hospital systems for the striking nurses to return to work across all three hospital systems, or if it is otherwise announced by the NYSNA or the relevant hospitals/hospital systems that the strike has ended and the striking nurses are returning to work across all three hospital systems. 

A tentative or conditional agreement in which the nurses return to work while negotiations are ongoing will count. Negotiations or agreements which do not include an agreement for the nurses to return to work will not impact this market’s resolution. Negotiations, agreements or announcements allowing for specific subsets of the striking nurses to return to work, but indicate that the strike is still ongoing, will not count.

An official announcement of a qualifying agreement or end of the strike within this market’s timeframe will suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” regardless of when the agreement will go into effect or when the nurses will return to work.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSNA and the Montefiore, Mount Sinai, and New York-Presbyterian hospital systems; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will the NYC nurses strike end by February 28, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kang Sun-woo spends any time in custody in a jail or prison by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Kang Sun-woo en la cárcel para el 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Arrestarán a Netanyahu antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Park Sung-jae spends any time in custody in a jail or prison by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a facility, such as the Seoul Detention Center, while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant, does not qualify. However, non-temporary detention initiated by a court-ordered warrant will count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from involved government(s), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Park Sung-jae en la cárcel antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former Olympic snowboarder Ryan Wedding is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


¿Ryan Wedding arrestado antes del 30 de junio?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Jerome Powell será arrestado antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed NBA player is traded from their current team to another NBA team before the 2025-2026 NBA trade deadline. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The NBA trade deadline for the 2025-2026 season is scheduled for February 5, 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Será traspasado Keon Ellis esta temporada?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if French government forces seize an oil tanker or any other ship actively transporting oil between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

French government forces refer to any active French military (including the French Maritime Gendarmerie), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.

Seizes refers to French forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a port controlled by France or another state confirmed to be cooperating with France in the seizure.

Seizures conducted in coordination with allied forces will count as long as French government forces physically take part in the operation at the site of the seizure. Remote or intelligence-sharing support from French forces will not alone count.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

¿Se formará un huracán antes del 31 de mayo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if former president of Spain José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿José Luís Rodríguez Zapatero arrestado antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe.

Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count.

The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.  

¿Estados Unidos evacúa la embajada en Bagdad antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Stefon Diggs is arrested or detained by law enforcement by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Stefon Diggs arrestado antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new episode of the Up Only podcast is publicly released to the general public by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Released previews of the interview won't count - the full interview must be released by the resolution date for this market to resolve to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market will be footage of the interview and/or a consensus of credible reporting.


¿Podcast Up Only publicado antes del 28 de febrero de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


¿Jerome Powell en la cárcel antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official mugshot of President Nicolás Maduro taken after January 2 is made widely available to the public by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official mugshot of Nicolás Maduro becomes widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, etc.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the government.

¿Foto policial de Maduro publicada antes del 30 de enero?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.

For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.

U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

¿Capturará Estados Unidos a otro líder mundial en 2026?

Becca Good is the widow of Renee Nicole Macklin Good, a 37-year-old mother of three who was shot by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent in Minneapolis on January 7, 2026. According to the New York Times, the Justice Department launched an investigation to examine her ties to activist groups (https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/us/prosecutors-doj-resignation-ice-shooting.html).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of Becca Good by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Se cobró a Becca Good antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Data Set 9 of the Epstein Files is released between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying data set will be labeled "Data Set 9 Files" on the U.S. Department of Justice website in the Epstein Library. Any additions to previously released data sets or file releases under data sets with names not exhibiting a sequential relationship similar to that between "Data Set 7 Files" and "Data Set 8 Files" will not be considered.

A partial release will qualify, so long as other qualifying conditions are met.

The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Justice website (see: https://www.justice.gov/epstein/doj-disclosures). 

¿Se publicará el Conjunto de Datos Epstein 9 antes de marzo?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed team makes the 2025-26 NBA Playoffs. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Note: reaching the Play-In Tournament will not qualify as making the Playoffs. To make the NBA Playoffs, a team must earn one of the 16 spots in the postseason bracket.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to make the Playoffs based on the rules of the NBA (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated from reaching the Play-In), this market will resolve immediately to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA.

¿Llegará el Oklahoma City Thunder a los Playoffs de la NBA?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if definitive evidence confirming the the incident on August 10, 2019, involving Jeffrey Epstein involved foul play is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Statements from the U.S. government indicating that there was foul play will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from any US government agency, law enforcement agencies, and courts, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Se confirma juego sucio en el caso de Jeffrey Epstein antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?

On March 17, Texas announced it had arrested Maria Margarita Rojas for her role in providing illegal abortions and illegally operating a network of clinics in the state. You can read more about that here: https://www.texasattorneygeneral.gov/news/releases/attorney-general-ken-paxton-announces-arrest-houston-area-abortionist-and-crackdown-clinics

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rojas is found guilty on any charge relating to providing illegal abortions in this case by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If all charges related to providing illegal abortions in this case are dismissed, end due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, or if a mistrial is declared for the relevant charges, this market will resolve to "No".

If all illegal abortion charges dismissed at any point, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgement delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.


¿Culpable Rojas en el caso de aborto ilegal en Texas?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if authentic helmet/body-cam video footage recorded after January 2 that shows U.S. forces physically capturing (taking into custody) President Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela is made widely available to the public by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if such capture footage becomes widely available to the public by any means, regardless of whether it is released officially, leaked, or published by media.

Qualifying footage must be at least 5 seconds in length and depict the moment Maduro is physically apprehended or restrained (or immediately thereafter while still at/within the capture location in Venezuela) in a way that makes it clear from the video that the operation is effecting his capture. Footage of Maduro already in custody outside Venezuela (e.g., aboard a ship/aircraft, at an airport, or at a U.S. facility) will not count unless it also includes the initial apprehension in Venezuela. Still images alone will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. 


¿Se publicará la grabación de la cámara corporal de la captura de Maduro antes del 31 de enero?

This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."

If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."

If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Será condenado Harvey Weinstein a entre 20 y 30 años de prisión?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Kardashian receives a passing score on the California Bar Exam by May 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of all California State Bar Exams within this market's timeframe are not known by the specified end date, this market may remain open until May 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, after which, if results remain unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the California State Bar Association, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. 

¿Aprobará Kim Kardashian el examen de abogacía antes del 3 de mayo?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Anexionará EE. UU. algún territorio en 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, including but not limited to allegations of stock price manipulation, bribery, election interference, abuse of power, or criminal acts related to Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law declaration and related subsequent actions, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will remain open through March 31, 2026 or until Kim Keon Hee is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the South Korean government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

All New Orleans escapees captured in May?

Contexto del Mercado

All New Orleans escapees captured in May?

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All New Orleans escapees captured in May?

Contexto del Mercado

All New Orleans escapees captured in May?

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