Ukrainian forces demonstrated active control over central Prymorske in Zaporizhzhia Oblast as recently as March 25, 2026, with geolocated footage showing captures of Russian prisoners of war amid cleanup operations, underscoring ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks that have repelled Russian infiltrations. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessments through March 26 confirm no confirmed Russian advances near Prymorske, where Ukrainian operations have forced retreats from northern and central sectors since early March, stalling Moscow's push along the western Zaporizhzhia frontline. Trader consensus reflects these barriers—intense fighting, FPV drone strikes, and Ukrainian footholds—making full Russian capture unlikely soon per ISW maps, though spring conditions could enable renewed escalation or reinforcements ahead of key dates like March 31 or April 30.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$712,049 Vol.
31. März
1%
30. April
6%
$712,049 Vol.
31. März
1%
30. April
6%
Prymorske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Stepnohirsk" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Prymorske, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K7mS2YU7bZoVVHga9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 5, 2026, 1:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Prymorske will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Stepnohirsk" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Once Russia captures the entirety of Prymorske, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/K7mS2YU7bZoVVHga9
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Ukrainian forces demonstrated active control over central Prymorske in Zaporizhzhia Oblast as recently as March 25, 2026, with geolocated footage showing captures of Russian prisoners of war amid cleanup operations, underscoring ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks that have repelled Russian infiltrations. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessments through March 26 confirm no confirmed Russian advances near Prymorske, where Ukrainian operations have forced retreats from northern and central sectors since early March, stalling Moscow's push along the western Zaporizhzhia frontline. Trader consensus reflects these barriers—intense fighting, FPV drone strikes, and Ukrainian footholds—making full Russian capture unlikely soon per ISW maps, though spring conditions could enable renewed escalation or reinforcements ahead of key dates like March 31 or April 30.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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