Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$5,313,534 Vol.

Regeln

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between August 6, 2024 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$5,313,534
Enddatum
Oct 31, 2024
Erstellt am
Aug 7, 2024, 2:20 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between August 6, 2024 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Umstritten

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Umstritten

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Market icon

Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$5,313,534 Vol.

Über

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between August 6, 2024 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$5,313,534
Enddatum
Oct 31, 2024
Erstellt am
Aug 7, 2024, 2:20 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Lebanon between August 6, 2024 and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by Lebanon, Israel, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Umstritten

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes

Umstritten

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes

Vorsicht bei externen Links.