Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.7% implied probability that Iran will not claim responsibility for the Oslo Israeli embassy stabbing attack, driven by the absence of any official Iranian statement or proxy endorsement more than a week after the incident. Norwegian authorities identified the suspect as a Norwegian-Pakistani man with apparent lone-wolf radical Islamist motives, lacking evidence of state sponsorship, consistent with Iran's typical pattern of claiming sophisticated proxy operations via groups like Hezbollah rather than opportunistic assaults. High confidence stems from elapsed time without attribution and police findings of no foreign links. A sudden Iranian claim or leaked intelligence tying Tehran directly could shift odds, though such reversals remain improbable absent new catalysts like ongoing investigations.