Amid escalating Israeli strikes on Hezbollah weapons depots and ongoing cross-border attacks since early March 2026, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about near-term disarmament, driven by Hezbollah's rejection of ceasefire talks and defiance of Lebanese government orders. The Lebanese Armed Forces seized a Hezbollah rocket launcher earlier this month following Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's ban on the group's military activities north of the Litani River, but compliance remains elusive amid the 2026 Lebanon war. Israel demands full implementation of UN Resolution 1701 for any durable truce, with talks potentially imminent but stalled by mutual accusations. No verified disarmament has occurred in the past 30 days, underscoring structural barriers like Hezbollah's Iranian backing and entrenched political influence in Lebanon.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWird die Hisbollah bis... entwaffnen?
Wird die Hisbollah bis... entwaffnen?
$857,254 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31. März
<1%
31. Dezember
33%
$857,254 Vol.
31. März
$840,582 Vol.
<1%
31. Dezember
$16,672 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Amid escalating Israeli strikes on Hezbollah weapons depots and ongoing cross-border attacks since early March 2026, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about near-term disarmament, driven by Hezbollah's rejection of ceasefire talks and defiance of Lebanese government orders. The Lebanese Armed Forces seized a Hezbollah rocket launcher earlier this month following Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's ban on the group's military activities north of the Litani River, but compliance remains elusive amid the 2026 Lebanon war. Israel demands full implementation of UN Resolution 1701 for any durable truce, with talks potentially imminent but stalled by mutual accusations. No verified disarmament has occurred in the past 30 days, underscoring structural barriers like Hezbollah's Iranian backing and entrenched political influence in Lebanon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
Volumen
$857,254Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Amid escalating Israeli strikes on Hezbollah weapons depots and ongoing cross-border attacks since early March 2026, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about near-term disarmament, driven by Hezbollah's rejection of ceasefire talks and defiance of Lebanese government orders. The Lebanese Armed Forces seized a Hezbollah rocket launcher earlier this month following Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's ban on the group's military activities north of the Litani River, but compliance remains elusive amid the 2026 Lebanon war. Israel demands full implementation of UN Resolution 1701 for any durable truce, with talks potentially imminent but stalled by mutual accusations. No verified disarmament has occurred in the past 30 days, underscoring structural barriers like Hezbollah's Iranian backing and entrenched political influence in Lebanon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Volumen
$857,254Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid escalating Israeli strikes on Hezbollah weapons depots and ongoing cross-border attacks since early March 2026, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism about near-term disarmament, driven by Hezbollah's rejection of ceasefire talks and defiance of Lebanese government orders. The Lebanese Armed Forces seized a Hezbollah rocket launcher earlier this month following Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's ban on the group's military activities north of the Litani River, but compliance remains elusive amid the 2026 Lebanon war. Israel demands full implementation of UN Resolution 1701 for any durable truce, with talks potentially imminent but stalled by mutual accusations. No verified disarmament has occurred in the past 30 days, underscoring structural barriers like Hezbollah's Iranian backing and entrenched political influence in Lebanon.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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