Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability against France, the UK, or Germany conducting strikes on Iran by March 31, driven by the E3 nations' consistent emphasis on diplomacy over escalation amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign. Following late February joint statements condemning Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies and US-UK bases like Diego Garcia, the trio has limited involvement to defensive deployments—such as UK approval for US bombers at RAF Fairford and multinational Strait of Hormuz patrols—while explicitly denying participation in offensive actions. Germany's recent characterization of the conflict as an "economic catastrophe" underscores reluctance for direct engagement, with no announcements of strikes despite heightened tensions. Late-breaking Iranian assaults on European interests or a severe Hormuz blockade could prompt a shift, though procedural and political hurdles make this unlikely in the remaining days.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWird Frankreich, Großbritannien oder Deutschland den Iran bis zum 31. März angreifen?
Wird Frankreich, Großbritannien oder Deutschland den Iran bis zum 31. März angreifen?
Ja
$4,733,305 Vol.
$4,733,305 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Ja
$4,733,305 Vol.
$4,733,305 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability against France, the UK, or Germany conducting strikes on Iran by March 31, driven by the E3 nations' consistent emphasis on diplomacy over escalation amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign. Following late February joint statements condemning Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies and US-UK bases like Diego Garcia, the trio has limited involvement to defensive deployments—such as UK approval for US bombers at RAF Fairford and multinational Strait of Hormuz patrols—while explicitly denying participation in offensive actions. Germany's recent characterization of the conflict as an "economic catastrophe" underscores reluctance for direct engagement, with no announcements of strikes despite heightened tensions. Late-breaking Iranian assaults on European interests or a severe Hormuz blockade could prompt a shift, though procedural and political hurdles make this unlikely in the remaining days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 16, 2026, 11:41 AM ET
Volumen
$4,733,305Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 16, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability against France, the UK, or Germany conducting strikes on Iran by March 31, driven by the E3 nations' consistent emphasis on diplomacy over escalation amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign. Following late February joint statements condemning Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies and US-UK bases like Diego Garcia, the trio has limited involvement to defensive deployments—such as UK approval for US bombers at RAF Fairford and multinational Strait of Hormuz patrols—while explicitly denying participation in offensive actions. Germany's recent characterization of the conflict as an "economic catastrophe" underscores reluctance for direct engagement, with no announcements of strikes despite heightened tensions. Late-breaking Iranian assaults on European interests or a severe Hormuz blockade could prompt a shift, though procedural and political hurdles make this unlikely in the remaining days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$4,733,305Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 16, 2026, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.5% implied probability against France, the UK, or Germany conducting strikes on Iran by March 31, driven by the E3 nations' consistent emphasis on diplomacy over escalation amid the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign. Following late February joint statements condemning Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional allies and US-UK bases like Diego Garcia, the trio has limited involvement to defensive deployments—such as UK approval for US bombers at RAF Fairford and multinational Strait of Hormuz patrols—while explicitly denying participation in offensive actions. Germany's recent characterization of the conflict as an "economic catastrophe" underscores reluctance for direct engagement, with no announcements of strikes despite heightened tensions. Late-breaking Iranian assaults on European interests or a severe Hormuz blockade could prompt a shift, though procedural and political hurdles make this unlikely in the remaining days.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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