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Politik·Trump

Wen wird Trump vor 2027 begnadigen?

Market icon
Politik·Trump

Wen wird Trump vor 2027 begnadigen?

$154,916 Vol.

31. Dez. 2026
Polymarket

$154,916 Vol.

Polymarket

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump's extensive use of the pardon power since his January 2025 inauguration—granting clemency to over 1,600 individuals, including mass pardons for January 6 Capitol defendants and 2020 election-related cases—defines trader consensus on future federal clemency before 2027. Individual actions targeted allies, donors, and white-collar offenders like Ross Ulbricht, Changpeng Zhao, George Santos, and the Chrisleys for fraud, corruption, and drug crimes, often waiving substantial restitution. No new pardons have occurred in the past 30 days, with the latest February 12 batch covering former NFL players' drug and tax offenses. Unilateral executive authority persists, with potential catalysts including DOJ cases, donor lobbying, or preemptive grants amid ongoing scrutiny.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$154,916
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump's extensive use of the pardon power since his January 2025 inauguration—granting clemency to over 1,600 individuals, including mass pardons for January 6 Capitol defendants and 2020 election-related cases—defines trader consensus on future federal clemency before 2027. Individual actions targeted allies, donors, and white-collar offenders like Ross Ulbricht, Changpeng Zhao, George Santos, and the Chrisleys for fraud, corruption, and drug crimes, often waiving substantial restitution. No new pardons have occurred in the past 30 days, with the latest February 12 batch covering former NFL players' drug and tax offenses. Unilateral executive authority persists, with potential catalysts including DOJ cases, donor lobbying, or preemptive grants amid ongoing scrutiny.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$154,916
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wen wird Trump vor 2027 begnadigen?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 27 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Stefan Brodie" mit 65%, gefolgt von „Donald Brodie" mit 62%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 65¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 65% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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