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Politik·Trump

Wen wird Trump vor 2027 begnadigen?

Market icon
Politik·Trump

Wen wird Trump vor 2027 begnadigen?

$155,140 Vol.

31. Dez. 2026
Polymarket

$155,140 Vol.

Polymarket

Stefan Brodie

$0 Vol.

66%

Donald Brodie

$0 Vol.

62%

Matt Gaetz

$0 Vol.

48%

Daniel Penny

$1 Vol.

36%

Ryan Salame

$15,064 Vol.

21%

Young Thug

$3,983 Vol.

31%

Steve Bannon

$0 Vol.

22%

Roger Ver

$0 Vol.

18%

Keonne Rodriguez

$0 Vol.

35%

Martin Shkreli

$2,795 Vol.

13%

Eric Adams

$50 Vol.

12%

Do Kwon

$15,747 Vol.

10%

Ghislaine Maxwell

$9,573 Vol.

9%

Nicolás Maduro

$5,265 Vol.

8%

Elon Musk

$48,549 Vol.

7%

Sam Bankman-Fried

$35,026 Vol.

7%

Elizabeth Holmes

$915 Vol.

18%

Diddy

$5,826 Vol.

7%

Edward Snowden

$1,748 Vol.

15%

Antoine Massey

$0 Vol.

5%

Joe Exotic

$330 Vol.

14%

Julian Assange

$1,500 Vol.

10%

Hunter Biden

$0 Vol.

4%

Sich selbst

$2,448 Vol.

7%

Roger Stone

$0 Vol.

41%

Derek Chauvin

$6,319 Vol.

29%

Bob Menendez

$0 Vol.

36%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump's clemency grants since January 2025—totaling over 1,800, including mass pardons for January 6 defendants, allies like Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows, anti-abortion activists, and numerous white-collar offenders—underscore his expansive use of the pardon power, fueling trader bets on future recipients before 2027. No major pardons have been announced in the past 30 days, maintaining steady market positioning amid a pattern favoring political supporters, donors, and fraud convicts. High-profile figures facing ongoing legal scrutiny, such as former Rep. Matt Gaetz and billionaire brothers Stefan and Donald Brodie convicted in a Cuba embargo case after recent Trump donations, represent key watchlist names. Midterm elections in November 2026 could influence lame-duck activity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$155,140
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Trump's clemency grants since January 2025—totaling over 1,800, including mass pardons for January 6 defendants, allies like Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows, anti-abortion activists, and numerous white-collar offenders—underscore his expansive use of the pardon power, fueling trader bets on future recipients before 2027. No major pardons have been announced in the past 30 days, maintaining steady market positioning amid a pattern favoring political supporters, donors, and fraud convicts. High-profile figures facing ongoing legal scrutiny, such as former Rep. Matt Gaetz and billionaire brothers Stefan and Donald Brodie convicted in a Cuba embargo case after recent Trump donations, represent key watchlist names. Midterm elections in November 2026 could influence lame-duck activity.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$155,140
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wen wird Trump vor 2027 begnadigen?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 27 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Stefan Brodie" mit 66%, gefolgt von „Donald Brodie" mit 62%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 66¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 66% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wen wird Trump vor 2027 begnadigen?" ist „Stefan Brodie" mit 66%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 66% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Donald Brodie" mit 62%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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