The United States and Israel initiated open military conflict with Iran on February 28, 2026, launching widespread airstrikes on nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, leadership targets—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—and defense industries, marking a sharp escalation from prior proxy tensions. As of March 30, combined US-Israeli forces continue striking Iranian military infrastructure, supported by Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar aiding in missile and drone intercepts, while UK bases host US operations. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, US assets, and Gulf states, prompting a US 15-point diplomatic proposal via Pakistan on March 24—demanding nuclear dismantlement—which Tehran rejected. With the March 31 deadline imminent, trader consensus reflects confirmed actions by leading actors amid potential ground operations and no ceasefire in sight.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$10,839,112 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Saudi-Arabien
4%
VAE
3%
Katar
2%
Bahrain
2%
Kuwait
1%
Jordanien
1%
Vereinigtes Königreich
1%
Türkei
1%
Ein EU-Land
1%
Frankreich
1%
Oman
1%
Deutschland
<1%
Kanada
<1%
$10,839,112 Vol.
Saudi-Arabien
$2,208,406 Vol.
4%
VAE
$2,852,108 Vol.
3%
Katar
$946,291 Vol.
2%
Bahrain
$392,924 Vol.
2%
Kuwait
$211,656 Vol.
1%
Jordanien
$189,690 Vol.
1%
Vereinigtes Königreich
$948,392 Vol.
1%
Türkei
$481,797 Vol.
1%
Ein EU-Land
$473,066 Vol.
1%
Frankreich
$750,279 Vol.
1%
Oman
$132,073 Vol.
1%
Deutschland
$912,746 Vol.
<1%
Kanada
$339,708 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel initiated open military conflict with Iran on February 28, 2026, launching widespread airstrikes on nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, leadership targets—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—and defense industries, marking a sharp escalation from prior proxy tensions. As of March 30, combined US-Israeli forces continue striking Iranian military infrastructure, supported by Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar aiding in missile and drone intercepts, while UK bases host US operations. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, US assets, and Gulf states, prompting a US 15-point diplomatic proposal via Pakistan on March 24—demanding nuclear dismantlement—which Tehran rejected. With the March 31 deadline imminent, trader consensus reflects confirmed actions by leading actors amid potential ground operations and no ceasefire in sight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$10,839,112Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel initiated open military conflict with Iran on February 28, 2026, launching widespread airstrikes on nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, leadership targets—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—and defense industries, marking a sharp escalation from prior proxy tensions. As of March 30, combined US-Israeli forces continue striking Iranian military infrastructure, supported by Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar aiding in missile and drone intercepts, while UK bases host US operations. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, US assets, and Gulf states, prompting a US 15-point diplomatic proposal via Pakistan on March 24—demanding nuclear dismantlement—which Tehran rejected. With the March 31 deadline imminent, trader consensus reflects confirmed actions by leading actors amid potential ground operations and no ceasefire in sight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$10,839,112Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Israel initiated open military conflict with Iran on February 28, 2026, launching widespread airstrikes on nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, leadership targets—including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—and defense industries, marking a sharp escalation from prior proxy tensions. As of March 30, combined US-Israeli forces continue striking Iranian military infrastructure, supported by Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar aiding in missile and drone intercepts, while UK bases host US operations. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel, US assets, and Gulf states, prompting a US 15-point diplomatic proposal via Pakistan on March 24—demanding nuclear dismantlement—which Tehran rejected. With the March 31 deadline imminent, trader consensus reflects confirmed actions by leading actors amid potential ground operations and no ceasefire in sight.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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