US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile capabilities, have dominated the conflict now three weeks in, with recent waves hitting Tehran infrastructure as of March 29. No other countries have conducted direct military action by March 30, keeping trader consensus low on Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE—despite their warnings of retaliation if Iran strikes energy or water facilities—reflecting conditional threats amid US diplomatic proposals Iran is reviewing and President Trump's extended deadlines for Strait of Hormuz access. UK, France, and Germany signaled potential defensive strikes early March but held back; Iranian threats to US and Israeli residences heighten risks of escalation before tomorrow's market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$10,836,209 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Saudi-Arabien
4%
VAE
3%
Katar
2%
Bahrain
2%
Jordanien
1%
Ein EU-Land
1%
Vereinigtes Königreich
1%
Kuwait
1%
Türkei
1%
Frankreich
1%
Oman
1%
Deutschland
<1%
Kanada
<1%
$10,836,209 Vol.
Saudi-Arabien
$2,206,704 Vol.
4%
VAE
$2,852,050 Vol.
3%
Katar
$946,220 Vol.
2%
Bahrain
$392,890 Vol.
2%
Jordanien
$189,690 Vol.
1%
Ein EU-Land
$472,065 Vol.
1%
Vereinigtes Königreich
$948,390 Vol.
1%
Kuwait
$211,646 Vol.
1%
Türkei
$481,794 Vol.
1%
Frankreich
$750,278 Vol.
1%
Oman
$132,073 Vol.
1%
Deutschland
$912,744 Vol.
<1%
Kanada
$339,708 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile capabilities, have dominated the conflict now three weeks in, with recent waves hitting Tehran infrastructure as of March 29. No other countries have conducted direct military action by March 30, keeping trader consensus low on Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE—despite their warnings of retaliation if Iran strikes energy or water facilities—reflecting conditional threats amid US diplomatic proposals Iran is reviewing and President Trump's extended deadlines for Strait of Hormuz access. UK, France, and Germany signaled potential defensive strikes early March but held back; Iranian threats to US and Israeli residences heighten risks of escalation before tomorrow's market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$10,836,209Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile capabilities, have dominated the conflict now three weeks in, with recent waves hitting Tehran infrastructure as of March 29. No other countries have conducted direct military action by March 30, keeping trader consensus low on Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE—despite their warnings of retaliation if Iran strikes energy or water facilities—reflecting conditional threats amid US diplomatic proposals Iran is reviewing and President Trump's extended deadlines for Strait of Hormuz access. UK, France, and Germany signaled potential defensive strikes early March but held back; Iranian threats to US and Israeli residences heighten risks of escalation before tomorrow's market resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$10,836,209Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, launched February 28 targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and missile capabilities, have dominated the conflict now three weeks in, with recent waves hitting Tehran infrastructure as of March 29. No other countries have conducted direct military action by March 30, keeping trader consensus low on Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE—despite their warnings of retaliation if Iran strikes energy or water facilities—reflecting conditional threats amid US diplomatic proposals Iran is reviewing and President Trump's extended deadlines for Strait of Hormuz access. UK, France, and Germany signaled potential defensive strikes early March but held back; Iranian threats to US and Israeli residences heighten risks of escalation before tomorrow's market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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