The United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's offices, nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, and military infrastructure, escalating into a full-scale conflict now over a month old. Recent combined US-Israeli operations struck northeastern sites near Mashhad on March 25-26 and defense industrial targets as of March 28, with reports on March 30 indicating the air campaign is nearly complete. No other countries have conducted direct military action against Iran amid the hostilities. The US postponed strikes on Iranian energy facilities until April 6, post-dating market resolution, while Iran rejected a US 15-point diplomatic proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement. Ongoing proxy responses from Iranian allies like the Houthis add regional tensions but have not prompted new actors by March 30.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert$10,856,415 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Saudi-Arabien
3%
Katar
3%
VAE
2%
Bahrain
2%
Kuwait
1%
Jordanien
1%
Vereinigtes Königreich
1%
Türkei
1%
Ein EU-Land
1%
Frankreich
1%
Oman
1%
Deutschland
<1%
Kanada
<1%
$10,856,415 Vol.
Saudi-Arabien
$2,214,653 Vol.
3%
Katar
$950,240 Vol.
3%
VAE
$2,858,471 Vol.
2%
Bahrain
$393,141 Vol.
2%
Kuwait
$211,706 Vol.
1%
Jordanien
$189,690 Vol.
1%
Vereinigtes Königreich
$948,392 Vol.
1%
Türkei
$481,803 Vol.
1%
Ein EU-Land
$473,319 Vol.
1%
Frankreich
$750,377 Vol.
1%
Oman
$132,169 Vol.
1%
Deutschland
$912,757 Vol.
<1%
Kanada
$339,796 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's offices, nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, and military infrastructure, escalating into a full-scale conflict now over a month old. Recent combined US-Israeli operations struck northeastern sites near Mashhad on March 25-26 and defense industrial targets as of March 28, with reports on March 30 indicating the air campaign is nearly complete. No other countries have conducted direct military action against Iran amid the hostilities. The US postponed strikes on Iranian energy facilities until April 6, post-dating market resolution, while Iran rejected a US 15-point diplomatic proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement. Ongoing proxy responses from Iranian allies like the Houthis add regional tensions but have not prompted new actors by March 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volumen
$10,856,415Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any E.U. member state initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed entity's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's offices, nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, and military infrastructure, escalating into a full-scale conflict now over a month old. Recent combined US-Israeli operations struck northeastern sites near Mashhad on March 25-26 and defense industrial targets as of March 28, with reports on March 30 indicating the air campaign is nearly complete. No other countries have conducted direct military action against Iran amid the hostilities. The US postponed strikes on Iranian energy facilities until April 6, post-dating market resolution, while Iran rejected a US 15-point diplomatic proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement. Ongoing proxy responses from Iranian allies like the Houthis add regional tensions but have not prompted new actors by March 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$10,856,415Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's offices, nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, and military infrastructure, escalating into a full-scale conflict now over a month old. Recent combined US-Israeli operations struck northeastern sites near Mashhad on March 25-26 and defense industrial targets as of March 28, with reports on March 30 indicating the air campaign is nearly complete. No other countries have conducted direct military action against Iran amid the hostilities. The US postponed strikes on Iranian energy facilities until April 6, post-dating market resolution, while Iran rejected a US 15-point diplomatic proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement. Ongoing proxy responses from Iranian allies like the Houthis add regional tensions but have not prompted new actors by March 30.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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