Anthropic's Claude family commands a 68.5% implied probability as the best AI model by end of June 2026, fueled by its blistering 2026 release cadence—major updates like Claude Sonnet 4.6 and Opus 4.6 every two weeks since January—dominating LMSYS Chatbot Arena and coding benchmarks such as SWE-Bench through superior agentic reasoning and knowledge work. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, launched February 19, trails at 21.5% despite record scores on 13 of 16 reasoning tests, as traders weigh its multimodal strengths against Claude's consistency. OpenAI's GPT-5.x variants at 6.5% reflect slower iteration amid March's model avalanche, with DeepSeek and xAI at 1.7% each betting on open-source surges. Key catalysts: Anthropic's rumored Claude 5 Q2 rollout and leaderboard shifts before June 30 resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertAnthropic 67.9%
Google 23%
OpenAI 7%
DeepSeek 1.7%
$2,958,904 Vol.
$2,958,904 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Anthropic
68%
23%
OpenAI
7%
DeepSeek
2%
xAI
2%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 67.9%
Google 23%
OpenAI 7%
DeepSeek 1.7%
$2,958,904 Vol.
$2,958,904 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Anthropic
$573,785 Vol.
68%
$318,389 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$105,392 Vol.
7%
DeepSeek
$232,655 Vol.
2%
xAI
$854,449 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$174,532 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$114,365 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$295,944 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$127,444 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$161,949 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude family commands a 68.5% implied probability as the best AI model by end of June 2026, fueled by its blistering 2026 release cadence—major updates like Claude Sonnet 4.6 and Opus 4.6 every two weeks since January—dominating LMSYS Chatbot Arena and coding benchmarks such as SWE-Bench through superior agentic reasoning and knowledge work. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, launched February 19, trails at 21.5% despite record scores on 13 of 16 reasoning tests, as traders weigh its multimodal strengths against Claude's consistency. OpenAI's GPT-5.x variants at 6.5% reflect slower iteration amid March's model avalanche, with DeepSeek and xAI at 1.7% each betting on open-source surges. Key catalysts: Anthropic's rumored Claude 5 Q2 rollout and leaderboard shifts before June 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volumen
$2,958,904Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude family commands a 68.5% implied probability as the best AI model by end of June 2026, fueled by its blistering 2026 release cadence—major updates like Claude Sonnet 4.6 and Opus 4.6 every two weeks since January—dominating LMSYS Chatbot Arena and coding benchmarks such as SWE-Bench through superior agentic reasoning and knowledge work. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, launched February 19, trails at 21.5% despite record scores on 13 of 16 reasoning tests, as traders weigh its multimodal strengths against Claude's consistency. OpenAI's GPT-5.x variants at 6.5% reflect slower iteration amid March's model avalanche, with DeepSeek and xAI at 1.7% each betting on open-source surges. Key catalysts: Anthropic's rumored Claude 5 Q2 rollout and leaderboard shifts before June 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volumen
$2,958,904Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude family commands a 68.5% implied probability as the best AI model by end of June 2026, fueled by its blistering 2026 release cadence—major updates like Claude Sonnet 4.6 and Opus 4.6 every two weeks since January—dominating LMSYS Chatbot Arena and coding benchmarks such as SWE-Bench through superior agentic reasoning and knowledge work. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro, launched February 19, trails at 21.5% despite record scores on 13 of 16 reasoning tests, as traders weigh its multimodal strengths against Claude's consistency. OpenAI's GPT-5.x variants at 6.5% reflect slower iteration amid March's model avalanche, with DeepSeek and xAI at 1.7% each betting on open-source surges. Key catalysts: Anthropic's rumored Claude 5 Q2 rollout and leaderboard shifts before June 30 resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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