Amid the 2026 Iran war, which began with US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian missile production, air defenses, and nuclear sites, Iran has retaliated with drone and missile attacks on Israel—including a March 28 strike on Haifa's strategic radar—and US bases in Gulf states like Bahrain and Qatar. Combined forces conducted fresh strikes on March 27 degrading Tehran's drone facilities near Mashhad, while Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal via Pakistan and Houthis launched an intercepted missile at Israel. President Trump extended a pause on US strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6. Traders weigh Iran's capacity for further escalation against Gulf oil hubs like Ras Laffan or Ras Tanura before the March 31 cutoff, amid Strait of Hormuz threats and diplomatic stalemate.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWas wird der Iran bis zum 31. März angreifen?
Was wird der Iran bis zum 31. März angreifen?
$454,528 Vol.
Dimona (Shimon-Peres-Negev-Nuklearforschungszentrum)
3%
Burj Khalifa
4%
Ghawar-Feld
10%
Safaniya-Ölfeld
8%
Ölverarbeitungsanlage Abqaiq
9%
Al Zour Raffinerie
12%
Leviathan Field
7%
Khurais Field
16%
Ras Tanura
6%
East–West Pipeline
8%
Habshan-Feld/Verarbeitungskomplex
11%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
20%
$454,528 Vol.
Dimona (Shimon-Peres-Negev-Nuklearforschungszentrum)
$251,505 Vol.
3%
Burj Khalifa
$1,339 Vol.
4%
Ghawar-Feld
$30,531 Vol.
10%
Safaniya-Ölfeld
$39,866 Vol.
8%
Ölverarbeitungsanlage Abqaiq
$39,532 Vol.
9%
Al Zour Raffinerie
$74,117 Vol.
12%
Leviathan Field
$1,106 Vol.
7%
Khurais Field
$4,997 Vol.
16%
Ras Tanura
$4,421 Vol.
6%
East–West Pipeline
$1,306 Vol.
8%
Habshan-Feld/Verarbeitungskomplex
$946 Vol.
11%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$4,860 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the 2026 Iran war, which began with US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian missile production, air defenses, and nuclear sites, Iran has retaliated with drone and missile attacks on Israel—including a March 28 strike on Haifa's strategic radar—and US bases in Gulf states like Bahrain and Qatar. Combined forces conducted fresh strikes on March 27 degrading Tehran's drone facilities near Mashhad, while Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal via Pakistan and Houthis launched an intercepted missile at Israel. President Trump extended a pause on US strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6. Traders weigh Iran's capacity for further escalation against Gulf oil hubs like Ras Laffan or Ras Tanura before the March 31 cutoff, amid Strait of Hormuz threats and diplomatic stalemate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Volumen
$454,528Markt eröffnet
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the 2026 Iran war, which began with US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian missile production, air defenses, and nuclear sites, Iran has retaliated with drone and missile attacks on Israel—including a March 28 strike on Haifa's strategic radar—and US bases in Gulf states like Bahrain and Qatar. Combined forces conducted fresh strikes on March 27 degrading Tehran's drone facilities near Mashhad, while Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal via Pakistan and Houthis launched an intercepted missile at Israel. President Trump extended a pause on US strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6. Traders weigh Iran's capacity for further escalation against Gulf oil hubs like Ras Laffan or Ras Tanura before the March 31 cutoff, amid Strait of Hormuz threats and diplomatic stalemate.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volumen
$454,528Markt eröffnet
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the 2026 Iran war, which began with US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting Iranian missile production, air defenses, and nuclear sites, Iran has retaliated with drone and missile attacks on Israel—including a March 28 strike on Haifa's strategic radar—and US bases in Gulf states like Bahrain and Qatar. Combined forces conducted fresh strikes on March 27 degrading Tehran's drone facilities near Mashhad, while Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal via Pakistan and Houthis launched an intercepted missile at Israel. President Trump extended a pause on US strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6. Traders weigh Iran's capacity for further escalation against Gulf oil hubs like Ras Laffan or Ras Tanura before the March 31 cutoff, amid Strait of Hormuz threats and diplomatic stalemate.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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