Amid the US-Israel-Iran war sparked by strikes killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on March 1, Iran has launched successive ballistic missile and drone waves targeting Israeli cities, US bases, and Gulf allies, including a March 28 drone attack on Qatar intercepted by its forces and prior hits on Ras Laffan Industrial City in mid-March. Trader consensus prices the highest probability at 39% for Iran striking Qatar's Ras Laffan—a key LNG hub hosting US assets—by March 31, reflecting recent Qatar-focused retaliation patterns, threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, and degraded Iranian missile stocks from ongoing Operation Epic Fury airstrikes. Israeli strikes on Iran's Arak nuclear site March 27 and Iranian hits on a Saudi base wounding US troops the same day sustain tit-for-tat escalation, with Trump's postponed power plant strikes now due April 6 amid diplomatic signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWas wird der Iran bis zum 31. März angreifen?
Was wird der Iran bis zum 31. März angreifen?
$451,478 Vol.
Dimona (Shimon-Peres-Negev-Nuklearforschungszentrum)
3%
Burj Khalifa
4%
Ghawar-Feld
9%
Safaniya-Ölfeld
9%
Ölverarbeitungsanlage Abqaiq
11%
Al Zour Raffinerie
12%
Leviathan Field
7%
Khurais Field
12%
Ras Tanura
6%
East–West Pipeline
8%
Habshan-Feld/Verarbeitungskomplex
13%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
19%
$451,478 Vol.
Dimona (Shimon-Peres-Negev-Nuklearforschungszentrum)
$251,504 Vol.
3%
Burj Khalifa
$1,339 Vol.
4%
Ghawar-Feld
$30,358 Vol.
9%
Safaniya-Ölfeld
$39,832 Vol.
9%
Ölverarbeitungsanlage Abqaiq
$39,027 Vol.
11%
Al Zour Raffinerie
$74,117 Vol.
12%
Leviathan Field
$1,106 Vol.
7%
Khurais Field
$4,598 Vol.
12%
Ras Tanura
$4,421 Vol.
6%
East–West Pipeline
$1,306 Vol.
8%
Habshan-Feld/Verarbeitungskomplex
$0 Vol.
13%
Ras Laffan Industrial City
$3,869 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the US-Israel-Iran war sparked by strikes killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on March 1, Iran has launched successive ballistic missile and drone waves targeting Israeli cities, US bases, and Gulf allies, including a March 28 drone attack on Qatar intercepted by its forces and prior hits on Ras Laffan Industrial City in mid-March. Trader consensus prices the highest probability at 39% for Iran striking Qatar's Ras Laffan—a key LNG hub hosting US assets—by March 31, reflecting recent Qatar-focused retaliation patterns, threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, and degraded Iranian missile stocks from ongoing Operation Epic Fury airstrikes. Israeli strikes on Iran's Arak nuclear site March 27 and Iranian hits on a Saudi base wounding US troops the same day sustain tit-for-tat escalation, with Trump's postponed power plant strikes now due April 6 amid diplomatic signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Volumen
$451,478Markt eröffnet
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed city/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Amid the US-Israel-Iran war sparked by strikes killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on March 1, Iran has launched successive ballistic missile and drone waves targeting Israeli cities, US bases, and Gulf allies, including a March 28 drone attack on Qatar intercepted by its forces and prior hits on Ras Laffan Industrial City in mid-March. Trader consensus prices the highest probability at 39% for Iran striking Qatar's Ras Laffan—a key LNG hub hosting US assets—by March 31, reflecting recent Qatar-focused retaliation patterns, threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, and degraded Iranian missile stocks from ongoing Operation Epic Fury airstrikes. Israeli strikes on Iran's Arak nuclear site March 27 and Iranian hits on a Saudi base wounding US troops the same day sustain tit-for-tat escalation, with Trump's postponed power plant strikes now due April 6 amid diplomatic signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out kinetic military strike on the listed pipeline/facility between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility, will be considered. Missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volumen
$451,478Markt eröffnet
Mar 20, 2026, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israel-Iran war sparked by strikes killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on March 1, Iran has launched successive ballistic missile and drone waves targeting Israeli cities, US bases, and Gulf allies, including a March 28 drone attack on Qatar intercepted by its forces and prior hits on Ras Laffan Industrial City in mid-March. Trader consensus prices the highest probability at 39% for Iran striking Qatar's Ras Laffan—a key LNG hub hosting US assets—by March 31, reflecting recent Qatar-focused retaliation patterns, threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, and degraded Iranian missile stocks from ongoing Operation Epic Fury airstrikes. Israeli strikes on Iran's Arak nuclear site March 27 and Iranian hits on a Saudi base wounding US troops the same day sustain tit-for-tat escalation, with Trump's postponed power plant strikes now due April 6 amid diplomatic signals.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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