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Geopolitik·Iran

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

Market icon
Geopolitik·Iran

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

Apr 30

Apr 30

$43,629 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$43,629 Vol.

Polymarket

Ras Laffan Industrial City

$11,240 Vol.

49%

Ras Tanura

$4,317 Vol.

40%

Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery

$3,151 Vol.

26%

Habshan Field/Processing Complex

$6,207 Vol.

26%

Ruwais Refinery

$1,865 Vol.

26%

Ghawar Field

$0 Vol.

24%

Safaniya Field

$0 Vol.

20%

Khurais Field

$4,302 Vol.

20%

East–West Pipeline

$4,902 Vol.

20%

Leviathan Field

$0 Vol.

17%

Abqaiq oil processing facility

$310 Vol.

16%

Al Zour Refinery

$0 Vol.

25%

Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)

$7,337 Vol.

8%

Burj Khalifa

$0 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Following Iran's April 13 barrage of over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel—retaliation for an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus that killed senior IRGC commanders—Israel conducted a limited strike on an air defense site near Isfahan on April 19. Tehran downplayed the response as minor and signaled closure, with Supreme Leader Khamenei declaring the issue settled and officials emphasizing restraint to avoid escalation. Proxy activities persist through Hezbollah clashes on Israel's northern border and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, but no direct Iranian military action has occurred since. US warnings, sanctions, and diplomatic channels reinforce de-escalation as the April 30 deadline approaches, with traders eyeing any Israeli operations or provocative rhetoric from Tehran as potential triggers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volumen
$43,629
Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Following Iran's April 13 barrage of over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel—retaliation for an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus that killed senior IRGC commanders—Israel conducted a limited strike on an air defense site near Isfahan on April 19. Tehran downplayed the response as minor and signaled closure, with Supreme Leader Khamenei declaring the issue settled and officials emphasizing restraint to avoid escalation. Proxy activities persist through Hezbollah clashes on Israel's northern border and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, but no direct Iranian military action has occurred since. US warnings, sanctions, and diplomatic channels reinforce de-escalation as the April 30 deadline approaches, with traders eyeing any Israeli operations or provocative rhetoric from Tehran as potential triggers.

Following Iran's April 13 barrage of over 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel—retaliation for an Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus that killed senior IRGC commanders—Israel conducted a limited strike on an air defense site near Isfahan on April 19. Tehran downplayed the response as minor and signaled closure, with Supreme Leader Khamenei declaring the issue settled and officials emphasizing restraint to avoid escalation. Proxy activities persist through Hezbollah clashes on Israel's northern border and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, but no direct Iranian military action has occurred since. US warnings, sanctions, and diplomatic channels reinforce de-escalation as the April 30 deadline approaches, with traders eyeing any Israeli operations or provocative rhetoric from Tehran as potential triggers.

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„What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 14 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Ras Laffan Industrial City" mit 49%, gefolgt von „Ras Tanura" mit 40%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 49¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 49% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?" ist „Ras Laffan Industrial City" mit 49%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 49% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Ras Tanura" mit 40%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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