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Geopolitik·Iran

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

Market icon
Geopolitik·Iran

What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?

Apr 30

Apr 30

$41,762 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$41,762 Vol.

Polymarket

Ras Laffan Industrial City

$11,240 Vol.

49%

Ras Tanura

$4,317 Vol.

40%

Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery

$3,150 Vol.

26%

Habshan Field/Processing Complex

$6,205 Vol.

26%

Ruwais Refinery

$0 Vol.

26%

Ghawar Field

$0 Vol.

24%

Khurais Field

$4,302 Vol.

21%

Safaniya Field

$0 Vol.

20%

East–West Pipeline

$4,902 Vol.

20%

Leviathan Field

$0 Vol.

18%

Al Zour Refinery

$0 Vol.

25%

Abqaiq oil processing facility

$310 Vol.

16%

Dimona (Shimon Peres Negev Nuclear Research Center)

$7,337 Vol.

8%

Burj Khalifa

$0 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Tensions between Iran and Israel dominate trader sentiment following Tehran's unprecedented direct drone and missile attack on Israel on April 13, retaliating for the April 1 Israeli airstrike on Iran's Damascus consulate that killed senior IRGC commanders. Israel responded with a limited strike near Isfahan on April 19, after which Iranian officials declared the matter "concluded" to avert wider war. No further direct actions have occurred, though Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah intensify border clashes with Israel and Houthis sustain Red Sea attacks on shipping and US assets. With the April 30 deadline looming, markets weigh Tehran's restraint amid economic sanctions, nuclear talks impasse, and US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation against persistent threats of retaliation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Volumen
$41,762
Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran carries out a kinetic military strike on the listed facility between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This includes, but is not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. For the purposes of this market, only strikes that cause physical damage to the infrastructure of the facility will be considered. Missile and drone strikes that are shot down or miss their targets, or make contact in open spaces or around the facility, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.Tensions between Iran and Israel dominate trader sentiment following Tehran's unprecedented direct drone and missile attack on Israel on April 13, retaliating for the April 1 Israeli airstrike on Iran's Damascus consulate that killed senior IRGC commanders. Israel responded with a limited strike near Isfahan on April 19, after which Iranian officials declared the matter "concluded" to avert wider war. No further direct actions have occurred, though Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah intensify border clashes with Israel and Houthis sustain Red Sea attacks on shipping and US assets. With the April 30 deadline looming, markets weigh Tehran's restraint amid economic sanctions, nuclear talks impasse, and US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation against persistent threats of retaliation.

Tensions between Iran and Israel dominate trader sentiment following Tehran's unprecedented direct drone and missile attack on Israel on April 13, retaliating for the April 1 Israeli airstrike on Iran's Damascus consulate that killed senior IRGC commanders. Israel responded with a limited strike near Isfahan on April 19, after which Iranian officials declared the matter "concluded" to avert wider war. No further direct actions have occurred, though Iran-backed proxies like Hezbollah intensify border clashes with Israel and Houthis sustain Red Sea attacks on shipping and US assets. With the April 30 deadline looming, markets weigh Tehran's restraint amid economic sanctions, nuclear talks impasse, and US diplomatic pressure for de-escalation against persistent threats of retaliation.

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„What will Iran conduct military action against by April 30?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 14 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Ras Laffan Industrial City" mit 49%, gefolgt von „Ras Tanura" mit 40%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 49¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 49% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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