Amid escalating US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military targets—including recent hits on border outposts and Kharg Island naval sites—and Iran's retaliatory attacks on Gulf infrastructure, President Trump announced a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy plants three days ago, citing "productive" indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Oman. Iran rejected Washington's 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding curbs on ballistic missiles, uranium enrichment, and proxy funding, instead issuing a five-point counteroffer while warning US ground troops would face destruction. Pakistan plans to host negotiations soon, but Tehran denies direct discussions, fueling trader consensus for a likely de-escalation by December 31 (75% implied probability) as war fatigue mounts, though near-term escalation risks persist ahead of the pause's expiration.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWaffenstillstand USA x Iran bis...?
Waffenstillstand USA x Iran bis...?
$61,640,944 Vol.
31. März
2%
7. April
8%
15. April
17%
30. April
32%
31. Mai
47%
30. Juni
59%
31. Dezember
75%
$61,640,944 Vol.
31. März
$38,909,811 Vol.
2%
7. April
$1,412,710 Vol.
8%
15. April
$5,999,619 Vol.
17%
30. April
$6,695,345 Vol.
32%
31. Mai
$2,269,022 Vol.
47%
30. Juni
$2,347,447 Vol.
59%
31. Dezember
$513,078 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid escalating US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military targets—including recent hits on border outposts and Kharg Island naval sites—and Iran's retaliatory attacks on Gulf infrastructure, President Trump announced a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy plants three days ago, citing "productive" indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Oman. Iran rejected Washington's 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding curbs on ballistic missiles, uranium enrichment, and proxy funding, instead issuing a five-point counteroffer while warning US ground troops would face destruction. Pakistan plans to host negotiations soon, but Tehran denies direct discussions, fueling trader consensus for a likely de-escalation by December 31 (75% implied probability) as war fatigue mounts, though near-term escalation risks persist ahead of the pause's expiration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volumen
$61,640,944Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Amid escalating US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military targets—including recent hits on border outposts and Kharg Island naval sites—and Iran's retaliatory attacks on Gulf infrastructure, President Trump announced a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy plants three days ago, citing "productive" indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Oman. Iran rejected Washington's 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding curbs on ballistic missiles, uranium enrichment, and proxy funding, instead issuing a five-point counteroffer while warning US ground troops would face destruction. Pakistan plans to host negotiations soon, but Tehran denies direct discussions, fueling trader consensus for a likely de-escalation by December 31 (75% implied probability) as war fatigue mounts, though near-term escalation risks persist ahead of the pause's expiration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$61,640,944Markt eröffnet
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Amid escalating US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military targets—including recent hits on border outposts and Kharg Island naval sites—and Iran's retaliatory attacks on Gulf infrastructure, President Trump announced a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy plants three days ago, citing "productive" indirect talks mediated by Pakistan and Oman. Iran rejected Washington's 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding curbs on ballistic missiles, uranium enrichment, and proxy funding, instead issuing a five-point counteroffer while warning US ground troops would face destruction. Pakistan plans to host negotiations soon, but Tehran denies direct discussions, fueling trader consensus for a likely de-escalation by December 31 (75% implied probability) as war fatigue mounts, though near-term escalation risks persist ahead of the pause's expiration.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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