Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism on a near-term US-Iran ceasefire, driven by Tehran's rejection of a US 15-point proposal three days ago, which demanded reparations, sovereignty affirmations, and inclusion of Lebanon in any deal. Ongoing military actions—including recent US strikes on Iran's Kharg Island oil hub and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran—underscore persistent escalation despite President Trump's claims of productive indirect talks via intermediaries. Gulf states remain cautious amid Houthi threats to widen involvement, while Iran's counterproposal highlights irreconcilable red lines on sanctions and defense capabilities. No major de-escalation signals have emerged in the past week, with Friday's anticipated Iranian response to the US plan as the key near-term catalyst before the March 31 resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertWaffenstillstand USA x Iran bis...?
Waffenstillstand USA x Iran bis...?
$56,976,483 Vol.
Apr 15, 2026
31. März
3%
7. April
11%
15. April
21%
30. April
40%
31. Mai
54%
30. Juni
63%
31. Dezember
76%
$56,976,483 Vol.
31. März
$36,013,309 Vol.
3%
7. April
$924,613 Vol.
11%
15. April
$5,520,881 Vol.
21%
30. April
$6,173,953 Vol.
40%
31. Mai
$2,167,369 Vol.
54%
30. Juni
$2,239,943 Vol.
63%
31. Dezember
$462,722 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism on a near-term US-Iran ceasefire, driven by Tehran's rejection of a US 15-point proposal three days ago, which demanded reparations, sovereignty affirmations, and inclusion of Lebanon in any deal. Ongoing military actions—including recent US strikes on Iran's Kharg Island oil hub and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran—underscore persistent escalation despite President Trump's claims of productive indirect talks via intermediaries. Gulf states remain cautious amid Houthi threats to widen involvement, while Iran's counterproposal highlights irreconcilable red lines on sanctions and defense capabilities. No major de-escalation signals have emerged in the past week, with Friday's anticipated Iranian response to the US plan as the key near-term catalyst before the March 31 resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
Volumen
$56,976,483Markt eröffnet
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism on a near-term US-Iran ceasefire, driven by Tehran's rejection of a US 15-point proposal three days ago, which demanded reparations, sovereignty affirmations, and inclusion of Lebanon in any deal. Ongoing military actions—including recent US strikes on Iran's Kharg Island oil hub and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran—underscore persistent escalation despite President Trump's claims of productive indirect talks via intermediaries. Gulf states remain cautious amid Houthi threats to widen involvement, while Iran's counterproposal highlights irreconcilable red lines on sanctions and defense capabilities. No major de-escalation signals have emerged in the past week, with Friday's anticipated Iranian response to the US plan as the key near-term catalyst before the March 31 resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volumen
$56,976,483Markt eröffnet
Mar 12, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects deep skepticism on a near-term US-Iran ceasefire, driven by Tehran's rejection of a US 15-point proposal three days ago, which demanded reparations, sovereignty affirmations, and inclusion of Lebanon in any deal. Ongoing military actions—including recent US strikes on Iran's Kharg Island oil hub and Israeli airstrikes on Tehran—underscore persistent escalation despite President Trump's claims of productive indirect talks via intermediaries. Gulf states remain cautious amid Houthi threats to widen involvement, while Iran's counterproposal highlights irreconcilable red lines on sanctions and defense capabilities. No major de-escalation signals have emerged in the past week, with Friday's anticipated Iranian response to the US plan as the key near-term catalyst before the March 31 resolution window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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