Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability against the U.S. obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by stalled nuclear negotiations and the high risks of military alternatives amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Recent reports detail a U.S. military plan briefed to President Trump for a commando raid to seize nearly 1,000 pounds of Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—but experts highlight complexities like storage in fortified tunnels, radiation hazards, and potential Iranian transfers to secure sites like Isfahan following U.S. strikes. Earlier March talks collapsed after Iranian proposals to downblend stockpiles clashed with U.S. demands for permanent enrichment cessation and facility dismantlement, with no diplomatic progress in the past week despite calls for a ceasefire deal. With under two months remaining, traders weigh institutional barriers and conflict dynamics over near-term resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
$186,493 Vol.
$186,493 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
$186,493 Vol.
$186,493 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability against the U.S. obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by stalled nuclear negotiations and the high risks of military alternatives amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Recent reports detail a U.S. military plan briefed to President Trump for a commando raid to seize nearly 1,000 pounds of Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—but experts highlight complexities like storage in fortified tunnels, radiation hazards, and potential Iranian transfers to secure sites like Isfahan following U.S. strikes. Earlier March talks collapsed after Iranian proposals to downblend stockpiles clashed with U.S. demands for permanent enrichment cessation and facility dismantlement, with no diplomatic progress in the past week despite calls for a ceasefire deal. With under two months remaining, traders weigh institutional barriers and conflict dynamics over near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volumen
$186,493Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability against the U.S. obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by stalled nuclear negotiations and the high risks of military alternatives amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Recent reports detail a U.S. military plan briefed to President Trump for a commando raid to seize nearly 1,000 pounds of Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—but experts highlight complexities like storage in fortified tunnels, radiation hazards, and potential Iranian transfers to secure sites like Isfahan following U.S. strikes. Earlier March talks collapsed after Iranian proposals to downblend stockpiles clashed with U.S. demands for permanent enrichment cessation and facility dismantlement, with no diplomatic progress in the past week despite calls for a ceasefire deal. With under two months remaining, traders weigh institutional barriers and conflict dynamics over near-term resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$186,498Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82.5% implied probability against the U.S. obtaining Iranian enriched uranium by May 31, driven by stalled nuclear negotiations and the high risks of military alternatives amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Recent reports detail a U.S. military plan briefed to President Trump for a commando raid to seize nearly 1,000 pounds of Iran's 60% enriched uranium stockpile—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—but experts highlight complexities like storage in fortified tunnels, radiation hazards, and potential Iranian transfers to secure sites like Isfahan following U.S. strikes. Earlier March talks collapsed after Iranian proposals to downblend stockpiles clashed with U.S. demands for permanent enrichment cessation and facility dismantlement, with no diplomatic progress in the past week despite calls for a ceasefire deal. With under two months remaining, traders weigh institutional barriers and conflict dynamics over near-term resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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