The United States has not conducted a nuclear explosive test since 1992, adhering to a voluntary moratorium under the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty framework, while relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's subcritical experiments and simulations at the Nevada National Security Site to certify its approximately 3,700-warhead stockpile. On March 24-25, 2026, Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the administration is assessing options to resume underground tests—per President Trump's October 2025 directive—citing alleged covert "at yield" testing by Russia and China as creating an "intolerable disadvantage." No testing decision or timeline has been finalized, with Departments of Energy and Defense conducting evaluations; traders should monitor NNSA announcements, congressional appropriations, and adversary actions for potential shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertUS-Atomtest von...?
US-Atomtest von...?
$610,219 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
30. Juni 2026
3%
September 30, 2026
50%
December 31, 2026
50%
$610,219 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
$0 Vol.
3%
September 30, 2026
$0 Vol.
50%
December 31, 2026
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has not conducted a nuclear explosive test since 1992, adhering to a voluntary moratorium under the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty framework, while relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's subcritical experiments and simulations at the Nevada National Security Site to certify its approximately 3,700-warhead stockpile. On March 24-25, 2026, Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the administration is assessing options to resume underground tests—per President Trump's October 2025 directive—citing alleged covert "at yield" testing by Russia and China as creating an "intolerable disadvantage." No testing decision or timeline has been finalized, with Departments of Energy and Defense conducting evaluations; traders should monitor NNSA announcements, congressional appropriations, and adversary actions for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volumen
$610,219Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has not conducted a nuclear explosive test since 1992, adhering to a voluntary moratorium under the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty framework, while relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's subcritical experiments and simulations at the Nevada National Security Site to certify its approximately 3,700-warhead stockpile. On March 24-25, 2026, Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the administration is assessing options to resume underground tests—per President Trump's October 2025 directive—citing alleged covert "at yield" testing by Russia and China as creating an "intolerable disadvantage." No testing decision or timeline has been finalized, with Departments of Energy and Defense conducting evaluations; traders should monitor NNSA announcements, congressional appropriations, and adversary actions for potential shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$610,219Enddatum
31. März 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has not conducted a nuclear explosive test since 1992, adhering to a voluntary moratorium under the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty framework, while relying on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's subcritical experiments and simulations at the Nevada National Security Site to certify its approximately 3,700-warhead stockpile. On March 24-25, 2026, Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the administration is assessing options to resume underground tests—per President Trump's October 2025 directive—citing alleged covert "at yield" testing by Russia and China as creating an "intolerable disadvantage." No testing decision or timeline has been finalized, with Departments of Energy and Defense conducting evaluations; traders should monitor NNSA announcements, congressional appropriations, and adversary actions for potential shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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