Incumbent Henry Cuellar holds a commanding lead in the TX-28 race, reflecting his long tenure representing South Texas and decisive primary win, even after mid-decade redistricting shifted the district toward a stronger Republican presidential lean. Forecasters rate the contest Lean Democratic, supported by an August poll showing Cuellar ahead by double digits. Tano Tijerina, the Republican nominee and former Webb County judge who switched parties, benefits from President Trump’s repeated endorsement and recent public criticism of Cuellar for remaining a Democrat after his 2025 pardon on federal charges. However, Tijerina trails in fundraising and early polling, limiting his momentum with three weeks until Election Day. Traders view the incumbent’s structural advantages as durable absent major late shifts in voter turnout or campaign dynamics.