Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a blockbuster >$200M 5-day domestic opening for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at 40% implied probability, outpacing analyst forecasts like Deadline's conservative $160M+ estimate, driven by surging pre-sales and Easter holiday positioning over April 1-5. Building on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $204M 5-day debut, recent catalysts include a final trailer drop during Nintendo Direct on March 9, a new poster revealing Star Fox crossover with Fox McCloud two days ago, and confirmed voices like Donald Glover as Yoshi, fueling family audience buzz amid light competition. With release imminent, final tracking updates and IMAX/3D premium formats could push toward record territory, though walk-up turnout remains a key swing factor.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
>200m 41%
190-200m 15.8%
170-180m 14.2%
160-170m 12.7%
$260,976 Vol.
$260,976 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
7%
160-170m
13%
170-180m
14%
180-190m
11%
190-200m
16%
>200m
41%
>200m 41%
190-200m 15.8%
170-180m 14.2%
160-170m 12.7%
$260,976 Vol.
$260,976 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
$19,695 Vol.
7%
160-170m
$19,453 Vol.
13%
170-180m
$18,040 Vol.
14%
180-190m
$17,952 Vol.
11%
190-200m
$18,126 Vol.
16%
>200m
$167,711 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a blockbuster >$200M 5-day domestic opening for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at 40% implied probability, outpacing analyst forecasts like Deadline's conservative $160M+ estimate, driven by surging pre-sales and Easter holiday positioning over April 1-5. Building on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $204M 5-day debut, recent catalysts include a final trailer drop during Nintendo Direct on March 9, a new poster revealing Star Fox crossover with Fox McCloud two days ago, and confirmed voices like Donald Glover as Yoshi, fueling family audience buzz amid light competition. With release imminent, final tracking updates and IMAX/3D premium formats could push toward record territory, though walk-up turnout remains a key swing factor.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Volumen
$260,976Enddatum
Apr 6, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a blockbuster >$200M 5-day domestic opening for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at 40% implied probability, outpacing analyst forecasts like Deadline's conservative $160M+ estimate, driven by surging pre-sales and Easter holiday positioning over April 1-5. Building on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $204M 5-day debut, recent catalysts include a final trailer drop during Nintendo Direct on March 9, a new poster revealing Star Fox crossover with Fox McCloud two days ago, and confirmed voices like Donald Glover as Yoshi, fueling family audience buzz amid light competition. With release imminent, final tracking updates and IMAX/3D premium formats could push toward record territory, though walk-up turnout remains a key swing factor.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$260,976Enddatum
Apr 6, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a blockbuster >$200M 5-day domestic opening for The Super Mario Galaxy Movie at 40% implied probability, outpacing analyst forecasts like Deadline's conservative $160M+ estimate, driven by surging pre-sales and Easter holiday positioning over April 1-5. Building on the 2023 Super Mario Bros. Movie's $204M 5-day debut, recent catalysts include a final trailer drop during Nintendo Direct on March 9, a new poster revealing Star Fox crossover with Fox McCloud two days ago, and confirmed voices like Donald Glover as Yoshi, fueling family audience buzz amid light competition. With release imminent, final tracking updates and IMAX/3D premium formats could push toward record territory, though walk-up turnout remains a key swing factor.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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