Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 2026 Senate battle, with probabilities clustered around 47-49 Republican seats amid President Trump's sinking approval ratings—now in the mid-30s per recent Emerson and YouGov polls—intensifying midterm headwinds for the incumbent party, which historically loses seats under low-approval presidents. Multiple Republican retirements, including in Iowa, Montana, North Carolina, and Kentucky, have created vulnerable open seats, while Democrats defend fewer but face challenges in Georgia (Ossoff) and Michigan (open Peters). Inside Elections' March 25 ratings highlight toss-ups in NC, GA, and MI, plus tilts in NH and ME, keeping outcomes tight. Shifts could emerge from spring polling in battlegrounds, primary results, or Trump rebound on economic issues before November.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert51 seats
≤47 26%
49 22%
48 14%
50 13%
$2,044,400 Vol.
$2,044,400 Vol.
≤47
26%
48
14%
49
22%
50
13%
51
9%
52
7%
53
7%
54
3%
55
2%
56
1%
57+
3%
≤47 26%
49 22%
48 14%
50 13%
$2,044,400 Vol.
$2,044,400 Vol.
≤47
$27,243 Vol.
26%
48
$14,717 Vol.
14%
49
$10,633 Vol.
22%
50
$59,581 Vol.
13%
51
$154,287 Vol.
9%
52
$502,448 Vol.
7%
53
$10,259 Vol.
7%
54
$706,218 Vol.
3%
55
$391,092 Vol.
2%
56
$138,698 Vol.
1%
57+
$29,222 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 2026 Senate battle, with probabilities clustered around 47-49 Republican seats amid President Trump's sinking approval ratings—now in the mid-30s per recent Emerson and YouGov polls—intensifying midterm headwinds for the incumbent party, which historically loses seats under low-approval presidents. Multiple Republican retirements, including in Iowa, Montana, North Carolina, and Kentucky, have created vulnerable open seats, while Democrats defend fewer but face challenges in Georgia (Ossoff) and Michigan (open Peters). Inside Elections' March 25 ratings highlight toss-ups in NC, GA, and MI, plus tilts in NH and ME, keeping outcomes tight. Shifts could emerge from spring polling in battlegrounds, primary results, or Trump rebound on economic issues before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
Volumen
$2,044,400Markt eröffnet
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 2026 Senate battle, with probabilities clustered around 47-49 Republican seats amid President Trump's sinking approval ratings—now in the mid-30s per recent Emerson and YouGov polls—intensifying midterm headwinds for the incumbent party, which historically loses seats under low-approval presidents. Multiple Republican retirements, including in Iowa, Montana, North Carolina, and Kentucky, have created vulnerable open seats, while Democrats defend fewer but face challenges in Georgia (Ossoff) and Michigan (open Peters). Inside Elections' March 25 ratings highlight toss-ups in NC, GA, and MI, plus tilts in NH and ME, keeping outcomes tight. Shifts could emerge from spring polling in battlegrounds, primary results, or Trump rebound on economic issues before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$2,044,400Markt eröffnet
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 2026 Senate battle, with probabilities clustered around 47-49 Republican seats amid President Trump's sinking approval ratings—now in the mid-30s per recent Emerson and YouGov polls—intensifying midterm headwinds for the incumbent party, which historically loses seats under low-approval presidents. Multiple Republican retirements, including in Iowa, Montana, North Carolina, and Kentucky, have created vulnerable open seats, while Democrats defend fewer but face challenges in Georgia (Ossoff) and Michigan (open Peters). Inside Elections' March 25 ratings highlight toss-ups in NC, GA, and MI, plus tilts in NH and ME, keeping outcomes tight. Shifts could emerge from spring polling in battlegrounds, primary results, or Trump rebound on economic issues before November.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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