Oklahoma's deeply Republican tilt, with no Democratic U.S. Senate victor since David Boren's 1990 exit, anchors the 95% trader consensus for a GOP winner in the 2026 race. Incumbent Sen. James Lankford holds a commanding position despite primary challenges from Trump-backed conservatives like Rep. Dusty Deevers, sparked by Lankford's lead role in the failed bipartisan border security bill. Early indicators, including Lankford's fundraising edge and statewide GOP dominance—evident in 2022's 33-point Republican presidential margin—bolster this pricing. Realistic shifts hinge on Lankford losing the June 2026 primary to a flawed nominee vulnerable in the general, or unforeseen scandals eroding GOP unity, though historical precedents suggest minimal upset risk.
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Republikaner
95%

Demokrat
5%

Republikaner
95%

Demokrat
5%
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Markt eröffnet: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma's deeply Republican tilt, with no Democratic U.S. Senate victor since David Boren's 1990 exit, anchors the 95% trader consensus for a GOP winner in the 2026 race. Incumbent Sen. James Lankford holds a commanding position despite primary challenges from Trump-backed conservatives like Rep. Dusty Deevers, sparked by Lankford's lead role in the failed bipartisan border security bill. Early indicators, including Lankford's fundraising edge and statewide GOP dominance—evident in 2022's 33-point Republican presidential margin—bolster this pricing. Realistic shifts hinge on Lankford losing the June 2026 primary to a flawed nominee vulnerable in the general, or unforeseen scandals eroding GOP unity, though historical precedents suggest minimal upset risk.
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