Incumbent Democrat Greg Landsman holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the November 3, 2026, general election in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, reflecting his established position, substantial fundraising edge of more than $4.6 million raised with $3.6 million cash on hand compared to Republican challenger Eric Conroy’s $1.5 million and $474,000, and consistent polling showing a narrow but steady advantage. The district, redrawn in late 2025 to include Clinton and Warren counties plus portions of Hamilton County, remains competitive, with Donald Trump carrying it by 6.5 points in 2024 and forecasters rating the race as Lean Democratic. Conroy, a former CIA case officer and Air Force veteran who won his May primary, has secured endorsements including from President Trump, yet limited recent polling from August and early voting that began October 6 have not shifted the implied probabilities. Upcoming campaign events and any late shifts in turnout or messaging could still influence the final margin before election day.