Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Jordan Bardella and Édouard Philippe as narrow frontrunners for France's 2027 presidential election, capturing over 45% implied probability amid ongoing political gridlock from the hung National Assembly. Recent catalysts include the December 2024 no-confidence vote toppling Michel Barnier's government—leading to François Bayrou's appointment as prime minister—and persistent budget impasse, boosting far-right National Rally momentum under Bardella while bolstering Philippe's center-right Horizons appeal as a stabilizing alternative. The race stays tight due to fragmented fields on left and right, Marine Le Pen's legal uncertainties, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon's left-wing divisions; separation could emerge from Bayrou cabinet survival, spring 2025 polls, or Macron's potential endorsements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNächste französische Präsidentschaftswahl
Nächste französische Präsidentschaftswahl
Jordan Bardella 25%
Édouard Philippe 21%
Marine Le Pen 10%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
$18,756,803 Vol.
$18,756,803 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
25%

Édouard Philippe
21%

Marine Le Pen
10%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Dominique de Villepin
5%

Raphaël Glucksmann
5%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

Sarah Knafo
3%

François Hollande
3%

David Lisnard
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

Jean Castex
2%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Marine Tondelier
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

François Ruffin
1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Manuel Bompard
<1%

Xavier Bertrand
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Olivier Faure
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: François Bayrou
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Gruppeneintrag Titel: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Clémentine Autain
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%
Jordan Bardella 25%
Édouard Philippe 21%
Marine Le Pen 10%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 10%
$18,756,803 Vol.
$18,756,803 Vol.

Jordan Bardella
25%

Édouard Philippe
21%

Marine Le Pen
10%

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
10%

Dominique de Villepin
5%

Raphaël Glucksmann
5%

Bruno Retailleau
4%

Sarah Knafo
3%

François Hollande
3%

David Lisnard
3%

Gabriel Attal
3%

Jean Castex
2%

Sébastien Lecornu
2%

Gérald Darmanin
1%

Éric Zemmour
1%

Juan Branco
1%

Marine Tondelier
1%

Bernard Cazeneuve
1%

François Ruffin
1%

Laurent Wauquiez
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Manuel Bompard
<1%

Xavier Bertrand
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Olivier Faure
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: François Bayrou
<1%

Fabien Roussel
<1%

François Asselineau
<1%

Gruppeneintrag Titel: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
<1%

Valérie Pécresse
<1%

Élisabeth Borne
<1%

Carole Delga
<1%

Ségolène Royal
<1%

Titel des Gruppeneintrags: Clémentine Autain
<1%

Michel Barnier
<1%

Gruppeneintragstitel: Yaël Braun-Pivet
<1%

Mathilde Panot
<1%

Clémence Guetté
<1%
The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Jordan Bardella and Édouard Philippe as narrow frontrunners for France's 2027 presidential election, capturing over 45% implied probability amid ongoing political gridlock from the hung National Assembly. Recent catalysts include the December 2024 no-confidence vote toppling Michel Barnier's government—leading to François Bayrou's appointment as prime minister—and persistent budget impasse, boosting far-right National Rally momentum under Bardella while bolstering Philippe's center-right Horizons appeal as a stabilizing alternative. The race stays tight due to fragmented fields on left and right, Marine Le Pen's legal uncertainties, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon's left-wing divisions; separation could emerge from Bayrou cabinet survival, spring 2025 polls, or Macron's potential endorsements.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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