US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and energy infrastructure continue unabated, with recent operations targeting sites near Mashhad on March 26 and Tehran on March 27, while Iran retaliated by striking a US base in Saudi Arabia, injuring troops. Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal on March 25, issuing counter-demands amid ongoing exchanges, reflecting no immediate de-escalation signals from either side. Trader consensus at 95% for action persisting through March 31 stems from this sustained escalation, President Trump's statements on remaining targets, and absence of diplomatic breakthroughs. Scenarios to shift odds include unexpected negotiations yielding a truce or unilateral halt, though barriers like rejected terms and fresh attacks make near-term resolution unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMilitärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März 95%
31. März 2.2%
30. März 1.2%
29. März <1%
$2,728,997 Vol.
$2,728,997 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29. März
1%
30. März
1%
31. März
2%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März
95%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März 95%
31. März 2.2%
30. März 1.2%
29. März <1%
$2,728,997 Vol.
$2,728,997 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29. März
$300,340 Vol.
1%
30. März
$287,757 Vol.
1%
31. März
$413,828 Vol.
2%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März
$579,189 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and energy infrastructure continue unabated, with recent operations targeting sites near Mashhad on March 26 and Tehran on March 27, while Iran retaliated by striking a US base in Saudi Arabia, injuring troops. Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal on March 25, issuing counter-demands amid ongoing exchanges, reflecting no immediate de-escalation signals from either side. Trader consensus at 95% for action persisting through March 31 stems from this sustained escalation, President Trump's statements on remaining targets, and absence of diplomatic breakthroughs. Scenarios to shift odds include unexpected negotiations yielding a truce or unilateral halt, though barriers like rejected terms and fresh attacks make near-term resolution unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$2,728,997Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and energy infrastructure continue unabated, with recent operations targeting sites near Mashhad on March 26 and Tehran on March 27, while Iran retaliated by striking a US base in Saudi Arabia, injuring troops. Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal on March 25, issuing counter-demands amid ongoing exchanges, reflecting no immediate de-escalation signals from either side. Trader consensus at 95% for action persisting through March 31 stems from this sustained escalation, President Trump's statements on remaining targets, and absence of diplomatic breakthroughs. Scenarios to shift odds include unexpected negotiations yielding a truce or unilateral halt, though barriers like rejected terms and fresh attacks make near-term resolution unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,728,997Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and energy infrastructure continue unabated, with recent operations targeting sites near Mashhad on March 26 and Tehran on March 27, while Iran retaliated by striking a US base in Saudi Arabia, injuring troops. Tehran rejected a US ceasefire proposal on March 25, issuing counter-demands amid ongoing exchanges, reflecting no immediate de-escalation signals from either side. Trader consensus at 95% for action persisting through March 31 stems from this sustained escalation, President Trump's statements on remaining targets, and absence of diplomatic breakthroughs. Scenarios to shift odds include unexpected negotiations yielding a truce or unilateral halt, though barriers like rejected terms and fresh attacks make near-term resolution unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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