Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31, reflecting the absence of de-escalation signals amid persistent tensions in the Israel-Iran shadow war. Recent airstrikes by Israel on Iranian targets in Syria last week, coupled with Iran's proxy escalations via Hezbollah and Houthis, have reinforced expectations of prolonged engagement, as no ceasefire negotiations or diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged from US, Israeli, or Iranian official statements. High probabilities underscore entrenched regional hostilities, with historical patterns of tit-for-tat retaliation sustaining conflicts. Potential challengers include sudden UN-mediated talks, a major diplomatic concession, or unexpected health events affecting key leaders, though these remain low-likelihood absent fresh catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMilitärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März 95%
31. März 1.8%
30. März 1.7%
29. März 1.6%
$2,550,570 Vol.
$2,550,570 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
26. März
<1%
27. März
<1%
28. März
<1%
29. März
2%
30. März
2%
31. März
2%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März
95%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März 95%
31. März 1.8%
30. März 1.7%
29. März 1.6%
$2,550,570 Vol.
$2,550,570 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
26. März
$326,382 Vol.
<1%
27. März
$330,972 Vol.
<1%
28. März
$307,549 Vol.
<1%
29. März
$266,290 Vol.
2%
30. März
$273,797 Vol.
2%
31. März
$360,229 Vol.
2%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März
$552,732 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31, reflecting the absence of de-escalation signals amid persistent tensions in the Israel-Iran shadow war. Recent airstrikes by Israel on Iranian targets in Syria last week, coupled with Iran's proxy escalations via Hezbollah and Houthis, have reinforced expectations of prolonged engagement, as no ceasefire negotiations or diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged from US, Israeli, or Iranian official statements. High probabilities underscore entrenched regional hostilities, with historical patterns of tit-for-tat retaliation sustaining conflicts. Potential challengers include sudden UN-mediated talks, a major diplomatic concession, or unexpected health events affecting key leaders, though these remain low-likelihood absent fresh catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$2,550,570Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31, reflecting the absence of de-escalation signals amid persistent tensions in the Israel-Iran shadow war. Recent airstrikes by Israel on Iranian targets in Syria last week, coupled with Iran's proxy escalations via Hezbollah and Houthis, have reinforced expectations of prolonged engagement, as no ceasefire negotiations or diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged from US, Israeli, or Iranian official statements. High probabilities underscore entrenched regional hostilities, with historical patterns of tit-for-tat retaliation sustaining conflicts. Potential challengers include sudden UN-mediated talks, a major diplomatic concession, or unexpected health events affecting key leaders, though these remain low-likelihood absent fresh catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,550,570Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus heavily favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31, reflecting the absence of de-escalation signals amid persistent tensions in the Israel-Iran shadow war. Recent airstrikes by Israel on Iranian targets in Syria last week, coupled with Iran's proxy escalations via Hezbollah and Houthis, have reinforced expectations of prolonged engagement, as no ceasefire negotiations or diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged from US, Israeli, or Iranian official statements. High probabilities underscore entrenched regional hostilities, with historical patterns of tit-for-tat retaliation sustaining conflicts. Potential challengers include sudden UN-mediated talks, a major diplomatic concession, or unexpected health events affecting key leaders, though these remain low-likelihood absent fresh catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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