US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear-related targets, including recent operations near the Bushehr facility, continue unabated into late March, fueling trader consensus at 96% for military action against Iran persisting through March 31. Yesterday's ballistic missile strikes by Iran-backed Houthis on Israel marked a proxy escalation, while US reports of new casualties highlight operational intensity despite over 10,000 targets degraded since February 28. Secretary of State Rubio stated operations will span weeks, not months, without ground troops, as Iran reviews a US ceasefire proposal via mediators. Diplomatic breakthroughs or verified halts in strikes could challenge this positioning, though no such signals have emerged.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMilitärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März 95.8%
31. März 1.3%
30. März <1%
29. März <1%
$2,806,427 Vol.
$2,806,427 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29. März
<1%
30. März
1%
31. März
1%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März
96%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März 95.8%
31. März 1.3%
30. März <1%
29. März <1%
$2,806,427 Vol.
$2,806,427 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29. März
$301,674 Vol.
<1%
30. März
$288,710 Vol.
1%
31. März
$415,038 Vol.
1%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März
$653,117 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear-related targets, including recent operations near the Bushehr facility, continue unabated into late March, fueling trader consensus at 96% for military action against Iran persisting through March 31. Yesterday's ballistic missile strikes by Iran-backed Houthis on Israel marked a proxy escalation, while US reports of new casualties highlight operational intensity despite over 10,000 targets degraded since February 28. Secretary of State Rubio stated operations will span weeks, not months, without ground troops, as Iran reviews a US ceasefire proposal via mediators. Diplomatic breakthroughs or verified halts in strikes could challenge this positioning, though no such signals have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$2,806,427Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear-related targets, including recent operations near the Bushehr facility, continue unabated into late March, fueling trader consensus at 96% for military action against Iran persisting through March 31. Yesterday's ballistic missile strikes by Iran-backed Houthis on Israel marked a proxy escalation, while US reports of new casualties highlight operational intensity despite over 10,000 targets degraded since February 28. Secretary of State Rubio stated operations will span weeks, not months, without ground troops, as Iran reviews a US ceasefire proposal via mediators. Diplomatic breakthroughs or verified halts in strikes could challenge this positioning, though no such signals have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,806,427Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear-related targets, including recent operations near the Bushehr facility, continue unabated into late March, fueling trader consensus at 96% for military action against Iran persisting through March 31. Yesterday's ballistic missile strikes by Iran-backed Houthis on Israel marked a proxy escalation, while US reports of new casualties highlight operational intensity despite over 10,000 targets degraded since February 28. Secretary of State Rubio stated operations will span weeks, not months, without ground troops, as Iran reviews a US ceasefire proposal via mediators. Diplomatic breakthroughs or verified halts in strikes could challenge this positioning, though no such signals have emerged.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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