Trader consensus strongly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (94.5%), driven by the absence of de-escalation signals amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on IRGC-linked targets in Syria, including strikes near Damascus and Aleppo in the past week that killed senior commanders. Iran's vows of retaliation have not materialized into direct action, preserving a tense shadow war status quo, while U.S. strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen add sustained pressure without resolution prospects. No ceasefire talks, diplomatic summits, or withdrawal announcements have surfaced in the last 48 hours. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected backchannel diplomacy, a Tehran restraint declaration, or U.S.-mediated de-escalation, though historical patterns of proxy escalation point to prolonged conflict.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMilitärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März 95%
31. März 1.8%
30. März 1.7%
29. März 1.4%
$2,550,714 Vol.
$2,550,714 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
26. März
<1%
27. März
<1%
28. März
<1%
29. März
1%
30. März
2%
31. März
2%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März
95%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März 95%
31. März 1.8%
30. März 1.7%
29. März 1.4%
$2,550,714 Vol.
$2,550,714 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
26. März
$326,382 Vol.
<1%
27. März
$330,972 Vol.
<1%
28. März
$307,560 Vol.
<1%
29. März
$266,296 Vol.
1%
30. März
$273,803 Vol.
2%
31. März
$360,235 Vol.
2%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März
$552,852 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (94.5%), driven by the absence of de-escalation signals amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on IRGC-linked targets in Syria, including strikes near Damascus and Aleppo in the past week that killed senior commanders. Iran's vows of retaliation have not materialized into direct action, preserving a tense shadow war status quo, while U.S. strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen add sustained pressure without resolution prospects. No ceasefire talks, diplomatic summits, or withdrawal announcements have surfaced in the last 48 hours. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected backchannel diplomacy, a Tehran restraint declaration, or U.S.-mediated de-escalation, though historical patterns of proxy escalation point to prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$2,550,714Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus strongly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (94.5%), driven by the absence of de-escalation signals amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on IRGC-linked targets in Syria, including strikes near Damascus and Aleppo in the past week that killed senior commanders. Iran's vows of retaliation have not materialized into direct action, preserving a tense shadow war status quo, while U.S. strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen add sustained pressure without resolution prospects. No ceasefire talks, diplomatic summits, or withdrawal announcements have surfaced in the last 48 hours. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected backchannel diplomacy, a Tehran restraint declaration, or U.S.-mediated de-escalation, though historical patterns of proxy escalation point to prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,550,714Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus strongly favors military action against Iran continuing through March 31 (94.5%), driven by the absence of de-escalation signals amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on IRGC-linked targets in Syria, including strikes near Damascus and Aleppo in the past week that killed senior commanders. Iran's vows of retaliation have not materialized into direct action, preserving a tense shadow war status quo, while U.S. strikes on Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen add sustained pressure without resolution prospects. No ceasefire talks, diplomatic summits, or withdrawal announcements have surfaced in the last 48 hours. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected backchannel diplomacy, a Tehran restraint declaration, or U.S.-mediated de-escalation, though historical patterns of proxy escalation point to prolonged conflict.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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