US and Israeli forces continued airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial sites, missile bases, and airfields as recently as March 27, including targets near Tehran and Mashhad, degrading Tehran's ballistic missile production and air defenses without any verified pause in Operation Epic Fury. This sustained military campaign, coupled with White House statements demanding Iran's unconditional surrender and rejection of ceasefire proposals by Iranian officials, drives trader consensus at 95.5% for action persisting through March 31, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in skin-in-the-game assessments amid stalled diplomacy. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough, such as acceptance of US peace terms or a UN-brokered halt, could challenge this, though no such signals have emerged ahead of upcoming Security Council discussions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMilitärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März 96%
31. März 2.2%
30. März 1.4%
29. März <1%
$2,733,288 Vol.
$2,733,288 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29. März
1%
30. März
1%
31. März
2%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März
96%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März 96%
31. März 2.2%
30. März 1.4%
29. März <1%
$2,733,288 Vol.
$2,733,288 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
29. März
$300,340 Vol.
1%
30. März
$287,892 Vol.
1%
31. März
$414,057 Vol.
2%
Militärische Maßnahmen bis zum 31. März
$583,111 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continued airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial sites, missile bases, and airfields as recently as March 27, including targets near Tehran and Mashhad, degrading Tehran's ballistic missile production and air defenses without any verified pause in Operation Epic Fury. This sustained military campaign, coupled with White House statements demanding Iran's unconditional surrender and rejection of ceasefire proposals by Iranian officials, drives trader consensus at 95.5% for action persisting through March 31, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in skin-in-the-game assessments amid stalled diplomacy. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough, such as acceptance of US peace terms or a UN-brokered halt, could challenge this, though no such signals have emerged ahead of upcoming Security Council discussions.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volumen
$2,733,288Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continued airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial sites, missile bases, and airfields as recently as March 27, including targets near Tehran and Mashhad, degrading Tehran's ballistic missile production and air defenses without any verified pause in Operation Epic Fury. This sustained military campaign, coupled with White House statements demanding Iran's unconditional surrender and rejection of ceasefire proposals by Iranian officials, drives trader consensus at 95.5% for action persisting through March 31, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in skin-in-the-game assessments amid stalled diplomacy. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough, such as acceptance of US peace terms or a UN-brokered halt, could challenge this, though no such signals have emerged ahead of upcoming Security Council discussions.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,733,288Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
US and Israeli forces continued airstrikes on Iranian defense industrial sites, missile bases, and airfields as recently as March 27, including targets near Tehran and Mashhad, degrading Tehran's ballistic missile production and air defenses without any verified pause in Operation Epic Fury. This sustained military campaign, coupled with White House statements demanding Iran's unconditional surrender and rejection of ceasefire proposals by Iranian officials, drives trader consensus at 95.5% for action persisting through March 31, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in skin-in-the-game assessments amid stalled diplomacy. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough, such as acceptance of US peace terms or a UN-brokered halt, could challenge this, though no such signals have emerged ahead of upcoming Security Council discussions.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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