Since late February 2026, when the US and Israel launched major strikes on Iran, Tehran has conducted direct retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US bases hosted in multiple Gulf states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, marking a sharp escalation in the ongoing regional conflict. The most recent verified actions occurred on March 27, with Iran striking a US air base in Saudi Arabia—injuring 12 American troops—and prompting UAE forces to intercept six ballistic missiles and nine drones near Abu Dhabi. Gulf states report ongoing interceptions and minor damage, while Iran-backed Houthis have fired missiles at Israel, heightening fears of broader involvement. Diplomatic warnings from Tehran to neighbors underscore proxy threats, with GCC nations prioritizing defense amid uncertain de-escalation paths.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIran military action against a Gulf State on...?
Iran military action against a Gulf State on...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
65%
April 2
51%
April 3
66%
April 4
63%
April 5
49%
April 6
42%
April 7
59%
April 8
64%
April 9
59%
April 10
44%
$8,991 Vol.
April 1
$63 Vol.
65%
April 2
$0 Vol.
51%
April 3
$0 Vol.
66%
April 4
$5,723 Vol.
63%
April 5
$0 Vol.
49%
April 6
$0 Vol.
42%
April 7
$0 Vol.
59%
April 8
$172 Vol.
64%
April 9
$3,034 Vol.
59%
April 10
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Since late February 2026, when the US and Israel launched major strikes on Iran, Tehran has conducted direct retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US bases hosted in multiple Gulf states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, marking a sharp escalation in the ongoing regional conflict. The most recent verified actions occurred on March 27, with Iran striking a US air base in Saudi Arabia—injuring 12 American troops—and prompting UAE forces to intercept six ballistic missiles and nine drones near Abu Dhabi. Gulf states report ongoing interceptions and minor damage, while Iran-backed Houthis have fired missiles at Israel, heightening fears of broader involvement. Diplomatic warnings from Tehran to neighbors underscore proxy threats, with GCC nations prioritizing defense amid uncertain de-escalation paths.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ET
Volumen
$8,991Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Since late February 2026, when the US and Israel launched major strikes on Iran, Tehran has conducted direct retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US bases hosted in multiple Gulf states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, marking a sharp escalation in the ongoing regional conflict. The most recent verified actions occurred on March 27, with Iran striking a US air base in Saudi Arabia—injuring 12 American troops—and prompting UAE forces to intercept six ballistic missiles and nine drones near Abu Dhabi. Gulf states report ongoing interceptions and minor damage, while Iran-backed Houthis have fired missiles at Israel, heightening fears of broader involvement. Diplomatic warnings from Tehran to neighbors underscore proxy threats, with GCC nations prioritizing defense amid uncertain de-escalation paths.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a Gulf State's soil on the listed date in Arabia Time (GMT+3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Qualifying "Gulf States" are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a gulf state's ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of a listed gulf state counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on a gulf state's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Iranian or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$8,991Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Since late February 2026, when the US and Israel launched major strikes on Iran, Tehran has conducted direct retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US bases hosted in multiple Gulf states, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, marking a sharp escalation in the ongoing regional conflict. The most recent verified actions occurred on March 27, with Iran striking a US air base in Saudi Arabia—injuring 12 American troops—and prompting UAE forces to intercept six ballistic missiles and nine drones near Abu Dhabi. Gulf states report ongoing interceptions and minor damage, while Iran-backed Houthis have fired missiles at Israel, heightening fears of broader involvement. Diplomatic warnings from Tehran to neighbors underscore proxy threats, with GCC nations prioritizing defense amid uncertain de-escalation paths.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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