Trader consensus prices 4 countries at 36% and 5 at 32%, reflecting strikes on four sovereign UN member states—Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq—since January, amid the US-Israel war launched against Iran on February 28 with ongoing airstrikes targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and infrastructure as recently as March 27-29. Escalation restarted the Lebanon war via Hezbollah strikes in early March, while January Syria border raids and February Iraq militia hits fill prior slots; Yemen's Houthis opened a new front with March 29 ballistic missiles, tightening the race pending confirmed Israeli retaliation there. Separation could arise from Yemen strikes, further proxy activations, or Trump-addressed ceasefire talks signaling de-escalation before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGruppen-Element-Titel: 4 36.0%
5 31.8%
3 13.8%
6 12.6%
$6,295,516 Vol.
$6,295,516 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
3
14%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: 4
36%
5
32%
6
13%
7
2%
8
2%
Gruppeneintrag Titel: 9
2%
10
2%
11
<1%
12
1%
13
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: 14
<1%
15+
<1%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: 4 36.0%
5 31.8%
3 13.8%
6 12.6%
$6,295,516 Vol.
$6,295,516 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
3
$1,887,694 Vol.
14%
Gruppen-Element-Titel: 4
$1,140,048 Vol.
36%
5
$452,535 Vol.
32%
6
$625,900 Vol.
13%
7
$584,608 Vol.
2%
8
$498,927 Vol.
2%
Gruppeneintrag Titel: 9
$198,553 Vol.
2%
10
$375,323 Vol.
2%
11
$89,502 Vol.
<1%
12
$59,354 Vol.
1%
13
$129,270 Vol.
<1%
Gruppeneintragstitel: 14
$94,590 Vol.
<1%
15+
$33,630 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices 4 countries at 36% and 5 at 32%, reflecting strikes on four sovereign UN member states—Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq—since January, amid the US-Israel war launched against Iran on February 28 with ongoing airstrikes targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and infrastructure as recently as March 27-29. Escalation restarted the Lebanon war via Hezbollah strikes in early March, while January Syria border raids and February Iraq militia hits fill prior slots; Yemen's Houthis opened a new front with March 29 ballistic missiles, tightening the race pending confirmed Israeli retaliation there. Separation could arise from Yemen strikes, further proxy activations, or Trump-addressed ceasefire talks signaling de-escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
Volumen
$6,295,516Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices 4 countries at 36% and 5 at 32%, reflecting strikes on four sovereign UN member states—Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq—since January, amid the US-Israel war launched against Iran on February 28 with ongoing airstrikes targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and infrastructure as recently as March 27-29. Escalation restarted the Lebanon war via Hezbollah strikes in early March, while January Syria border raids and February Iraq militia hits fill prior slots; Yemen's Houthis opened a new front with March 29 ballistic missiles, tightening the race pending confirmed Israeli retaliation there. Separation could arise from Yemen strikes, further proxy activations, or Trump-addressed ceasefire talks signaling de-escalation before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$6,295,516Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices 4 countries at 36% and 5 at 32%, reflecting strikes on four sovereign UN member states—Iran, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq—since January, amid the US-Israel war launched against Iran on February 28 with ongoing airstrikes targeting nuclear sites, leadership, and infrastructure as recently as March 27-29. Escalation restarted the Lebanon war via Hezbollah strikes in early March, while January Syria border raids and February Iraq militia hits fill prior slots; Yemen's Houthis opened a new front with March 29 ballistic missiles, tightening the race pending confirmed Israeli retaliation there. Separation could arise from Yemen strikes, further proxy activations, or Trump-addressed ceasefire talks signaling de-escalation before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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