Traders overwhelmingly price an 80–90 per 100,000 cumulative flu hospitalization rate for Week 11, 2026 (mid-March), with 97.8% implied probability, anchored in CDC historical data where moderate-severity seasons like 2022–23 and 2019–20 averaged 82–88 by that week, reflecting typical H1N1/H3N2 circulation and vaccination efficacy around 40–60%. Recent 2024–25 FluView reports confirm low early-season activity (under 5 per 100k cumulative as of Week 42), aligning with post-pandemic normalization rather than 2020–21 lows or 2017–18 peaks above 120. This positioning holds unless a vaccine-antigenic mismatch sparks early surges or novel strains emerge, potentially pushing rates toward 100+; conversely, high uptake of updated vaccines could drop below 70, though historical baselines make extremes unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertFlu Hospitalization Rate Week 11, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 11, 2026?
80–90 97.8%
90–100 1.1%
60–70 1.1%
<60 1.1%
<60
1%
60–70
1%
70–80
1%
80–90
98%
90–100
1%
100+
1%
80–90 97.8%
90–100 1.1%
60–70 1.1%
<60 1.1%
<60
1%
60–70
1%
70–80
1%
80–90
98%
90–100
1%
100+
1%
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 2:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders overwhelmingly price an 80–90 per 100,000 cumulative flu hospitalization rate for Week 11, 2026 (mid-March), with 97.8% implied probability, anchored in CDC historical data where moderate-severity seasons like 2022–23 and 2019–20 averaged 82–88 by that week, reflecting typical H1N1/H3N2 circulation and vaccination efficacy around 40–60%. Recent 2024–25 FluView reports confirm low early-season activity (under 5 per 100k cumulative as of Week 42), aligning with post-pandemic normalization rather than 2020–21 lows or 2017–18 peaks above 120. This positioning holds unless a vaccine-antigenic mismatch sparks early surges or novel strains emerge, potentially pushing rates toward 100+; conversely, high uptake of updated vaccines could drop below 70, though historical baselines make extremes unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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