Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's net worth falling in the 640-650 billion range as of March 31, 2026, driven by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index's authoritative daily update confirming $644 billion—reflecting a $11.7 billion (1.8%) single-day gain and $24.2 billion year-to-date increase. This positioning stems from Tesla's market cap hitting $1.39 trillion, bolstering Musk's ~11% stake plus 304 million exercisable options, alongside his 44% holding in the SpaceX-xAI combined entity valued at $1.03 trillion post-February merger, offset by modest liabilities like pledged shares. While near-certain, rare index revisions for private asset discounts or loan adjustments could theoretically challenge resolution, though traders price negligible risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert640-650 Mrd. 100.0%
<640 Mrd. <1%
650-660 Mrd. <1%
660-670 Mrd. <1%
$1,270,803 Vol.
$1,270,803 Vol.
<640 Mrd.
Nein
640-650 Mrd.
Ja
650-660 Mrd.
Nein
660-670 Mrd.
Nein
670-680 Mrd.
Nein
680-690 Mrd.
Nein
690-700 Mrd.
Nein
700-710 Mrd.
Nein
710 Mrd.+
Nein
640-650 Mrd. 100.0%
<640 Mrd. <1%
650-660 Mrd. <1%
660-670 Mrd. <1%
$1,270,803 Vol.
$1,270,803 Vol.
<640 Mrd.
Nein
640-650 Mrd.
Ja
650-660 Mrd.
Nein
660-670 Mrd.
Nein
670-680 Mrd.
Nein
680-690 Mrd.
Nein
690-700 Mrd.
Nein
700-710 Mrd.
Nein
710 Mrd.+
Nein
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 25, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for March 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Elon Musk's net worth falling in the 640-650 billion range as of March 31, 2026, driven by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index's authoritative daily update confirming $644 billion—reflecting a $11.7 billion (1.8%) single-day gain and $24.2 billion year-to-date increase. This positioning stems from Tesla's market cap hitting $1.39 trillion, bolstering Musk's ~11% stake plus 304 million exercisable options, alongside his 44% holding in the SpaceX-xAI combined entity valued at $1.03 trillion post-February merger, offset by modest liabilities like pledged shares. While near-certain, rare index revisions for private asset discounts or loan adjustments could theoretically challenge resolution, though traders price negligible risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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