Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data for April 1, 2026, shows global surface air temperature (2m) reaching an exceptionally high level for early spring, positioning it perilously close to the current second- and third-hottest days on record—narrowly separated summer peaks from 2024 at around 17.1°C—driving trader-implied odds of 37% for third hottest and 34% for second. This stems from persisting positive anomalies after 2025's third-warmest year ranking (Copernicus), amplified by the La Niña-to-ENSO-neutral transition (NOAA CPC March update), which lifts suppression on global averages. Differentiating factors include final data revisions for April 1 and model consensus for April 2-3 peaks, with inherent reanalysis uncertainty; Copernicus updates expected in 5-6 days could clarify rankings amid ongoing warming trends.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
3rd hottest 42%
2nd hottest 32%
4th or lower 25%
1st hottest 10%
NEU
NEU
10. Mai 2026
1st hottest
10%
2nd hottest
32%
3rd hottest
37%
4th or lower
23%
3rd hottest 42%
2nd hottest 32%
4th or lower 25%
1st hottest 10%
NEU
NEU
10. Mai 2026
1st hottest
$907 Vol.
10%
2nd hottest
$219 Vol.
32%
3rd hottest
$230 Vol.
37%
4th or lower
$672 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data for April 1, 2026, shows global surface air temperature (2m) reaching an exceptionally high level for early spring, positioning it perilously close to the current second- and third-hottest days on record—narrowly separated summer peaks from 2024 at around 17.1°C—driving trader-implied odds of 37% for third hottest and 34% for second. This stems from persisting positive anomalies after 2025's third-warmest year ranking (Copernicus), amplified by the La Niña-to-ENSO-neutral transition (NOAA CPC March update), which lifts suppression on global averages. Differentiating factors include final data revisions for April 1 and model consensus for April 2-3 peaks, with inherent reanalysis uncertainty; Copernicus updates expected in 5-6 days could clarify rankings amid ongoing warming trends.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volumen
$2,028Enddatum
10. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data for April 1, 2026, shows global surface air temperature (2m) reaching an exceptionally high level for early spring, positioning it perilously close to the current second- and third-hottest days on record—narrowly separated summer peaks from 2024 at around 17.1°C—driving trader-implied odds of 37% for third hottest and 34% for second. This stems from persisting positive anomalies after 2025's third-warmest year ranking (Copernicus), amplified by the La Niña-to-ENSO-neutral transition (NOAA CPC March update), which lifts suppression on global averages. Differentiating factors include final data revisions for April 1 and model consensus for April 2-3 peaks, with inherent reanalysis uncertainty; Copernicus updates expected in 5-6 days could clarify rankings amid ongoing warming trends.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$2,028Enddatum
10. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data for April 1, 2026, shows global surface air temperature (2m) reaching an exceptionally high level for early spring, positioning it perilously close to the current second- and third-hottest days on record—narrowly separated summer peaks from 2024 at around 17.1°C—driving trader-implied odds of 37% for third hottest and 34% for second. This stems from persisting positive anomalies after 2025's third-warmest year ranking (Copernicus), amplified by the La Niña-to-ENSO-neutral transition (NOAA CPC March update), which lifts suppression on global averages. Differentiating factors include final data revisions for April 1 and model consensus for April 2-3 peaks, with inherent reanalysis uncertainty; Copernicus updates expected in 5-6 days could clarify rankings amid ongoing warming trends.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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