US intelligence assessments released in early May 2026 indicate that US and Israeli strikes during the February-April war inflicted limited new damage on Iran's nuclear program, leaving its timeline to produce a nuclear weapon at 9-12 months—extending potential capability beyond 2026. IAEA reports confirm substantial enriched uranium stockpiles but no verified weaponization activities, while ongoing US-Iran negotiations have seen Tehran agree to discuss capping enrichment at 3.5% as part of peace talks. This diplomatic momentum, combined with the post-war setback and doctrinal fatwa against nuclear arms, underpins trader consensus pricing "No" at 90.7%, though escalation, failed diplomacy, or a sprint to breakout could still shift odds before year-end resolution.