US and Israeli airstrikes during the February 2026 conflict, including Operation Epic Fury, severely damaged Iran's key nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting uranium enrichment activities according to US intelligence assessments and Iranian official statements. IAEA reports from February confirm no evidence of weaponization, though access to bombed sites remains denied, leaving verification of suspended operations incomplete. Recent ceasefire negotiations, with President Trump stating on April 17 that Iran agreed to indefinitely suspend its nuclear program and remove its highly enriched uranium stockpile, have bolstered trader consensus against a pre-2027 weapon. Gaps persist in talks over timelines and sanctions relief, but regime survival pressures and economic devastation from the war reduce breakout risks, with historical patterns showing strikes extend timelines significantly. Late developments like failed diplomacy or covert rebuilding could shift odds.