US and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and related sites, destroying or burying most centrifuges and rendering active uranium enrichment inoperable according to IAEA assessments and satellite analysis. This extended Iran's estimated breakout timeline to roughly one year even if Tehran decides to pursue weaponization of its remaining stockpile of about 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, much of which remains inaccessible under rubble or in sealed tunnels. IAEA inspectors have had no access to key sites since mid-2025, but available evidence shows no verified diversion or weaponization activity. Trader consensus on a low probability of an Iranian nuclear device before 2027 reflects these setbacks. Potential shifts could arise from undetected reconstruction at hardened sites like Pickaxe Mountain or Minzadehei, a rapid policy reversal amid stalled diplomacy, or successful extraction of surviving material, though current indicators suggest such steps would require more time.