Recent US-Israeli strikes in early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities and related sites, including underground complexes, delaying any path to a nuclear test by necessitating extensive reconstruction. Satellite imagery from September and October 2026 shows renewed activity at the Minzadayi compound struck in March, consistent with cleanup and rebuilding efforts rather than completed weaponization. Ongoing IAEA access restrictions and diplomatic talks further constrain timelines. Trader consensus at 95% for no test before 2027 reflects these structural barriers. Scenarios that could shift odds include accelerated reconstruction at undamaged sites, leadership decisions amid regional escalation, or undetected advances in warhead development.