US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear weaponization facilities during the ongoing 2026 Iran war—most recently in Operations Roaring Lion and Epic—have degraded key capabilities, with US intelligence assessments on May 4 confirming limited new damage but no acceleration toward a nuclear test. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's restricted access to enrichment sites and a stockpile of 60% enriched uranium stored underground, yet show no evidence of testing activities or diversion to explosive devices. Breakout timelines remain 9-12 months per recent analyses, amid heightened military pressure and diplomatic isolation, anchoring trader consensus at 91.5% against a test before 2027 despite speculation. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or regime changes could alter this outlook.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$189,940 Vol.
$189,940 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$189,940 Vol.
$189,940 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear weaponization facilities during the ongoing 2026 Iran war—most recently in Operations Roaring Lion and Epic—have degraded key capabilities, with US intelligence assessments on May 4 confirming limited new damage but no acceleration toward a nuclear test. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's restricted access to enrichment sites and a stockpile of 60% enriched uranium stored underground, yet show no evidence of testing activities or diversion to explosive devices. Breakout timelines remain 9-12 months per recent analyses, amid heightened military pressure and diplomatic isolation, anchoring trader consensus at 91.5% against a test before 2027 despite speculation. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or regime changes could alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$189,940শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear weaponization facilities during the ongoing 2026 Iran war—most recently in Operations Roaring Lion and Epic—have degraded key capabilities, with US intelligence assessments on May 4 confirming limited new damage but no acceleration toward a nuclear test. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's restricted access to enrichment sites and a stockpile of 60% enriched uranium stored underground, yet show no evidence of testing activities or diversion to explosive devices. Breakout timelines remain 9-12 months per recent analyses, amid heightened military pressure and diplomatic isolation, anchoring trader consensus at 91.5% against a test before 2027 despite speculation. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or regime changes could alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$189,940শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear weaponization facilities during the ongoing 2026 Iran war—most recently in Operations Roaring Lion and Epic—have degraded key capabilities, with US intelligence assessments on May 4 confirming limited new damage but no acceleration toward a nuclear test. IAEA reports from February highlight Iran's restricted access to enrichment sites and a stockpile of 60% enriched uranium stored underground, yet show no evidence of testing activities or diversion to explosive devices. Breakout timelines remain 9-12 months per recent analyses, amid heightened military pressure and diplomatic isolation, anchoring trader consensus at 91.5% against a test before 2027 despite speculation. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or regime changes could alter this outlook.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা