Iran's nuclear infrastructure suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites such as Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable and roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium unaccounted for under rubble or in sealed tunnels. IAEA inspectors have had no access to these facilities since mid-2025, yet no verified evidence has emerged of resumed enrichment, centrifuge reconstruction at scale, or weaponization activities needed for a nuclear device. Iran has reaffirmed commitments under a June 2026 memorandum of understanding to maintain the status quo and forgo nuclear weapons, while facing renewed international scrutiny after the IAEA referred safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council in September. Trader consensus on a low probability of a test before 2027 reflects these structural barriers and ongoing military and diplomatic pressures. Late escalation or undetected recovery at hardened sites such as Pickaxe Mountain could still shift timelines.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড5% সম্ভাবনা
$262,808 Vol.
$262,808 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% সম্ভাবনা
$262,808 Vol.
$262,808 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear infrastructure suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites such as Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable and roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium unaccounted for under rubble or in sealed tunnels. IAEA inspectors have had no access to these facilities since mid-2025, yet no verified evidence has emerged of resumed enrichment, centrifuge reconstruction at scale, or weaponization activities needed for a nuclear device. Iran has reaffirmed commitments under a June 2026 memorandum of understanding to maintain the status quo and forgo nuclear weapons, while facing renewed international scrutiny after the IAEA referred safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council in September. Trader consensus on a low probability of a test before 2027 reflects these structural barriers and ongoing military and diplomatic pressures. Late escalation or undetected recovery at hardened sites such as Pickaxe Mountain could still shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$262,808শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear infrastructure suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites such as Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable and roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium unaccounted for under rubble or in sealed tunnels. IAEA inspectors have had no access to these facilities since mid-2025, yet no verified evidence has emerged of resumed enrichment, centrifuge reconstruction at scale, or weaponization activities needed for a nuclear device. Iran has reaffirmed commitments under a June 2026 memorandum of understanding to maintain the status quo and forgo nuclear weapons, while facing renewed international scrutiny after the IAEA referred safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council in September. Trader consensus on a low probability of a test before 2027 reflects these structural barriers and ongoing military and diplomatic pressures. Late escalation or undetected recovery at hardened sites such as Pickaxe Mountain could still shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$262,808শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Iran's nuclear infrastructure suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites such as Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan inoperable and roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium unaccounted for under rubble or in sealed tunnels. IAEA inspectors have had no access to these facilities since mid-2025, yet no verified evidence has emerged of resumed enrichment, centrifuge reconstruction at scale, or weaponization activities needed for a nuclear device. Iran has reaffirmed commitments under a June 2026 memorandum of understanding to maintain the status quo and forgo nuclear weapons, while facing renewed international scrutiny after the IAEA referred safeguards noncompliance to the UN Security Council in September. Trader consensus on a low probability of a test before 2027 reflects these structural barriers and ongoing military and diplomatic pressures. Late escalation or undetected recovery at hardened sites such as Pickaxe Mountain could still shift timelines.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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