Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and follow-on operations through the February-April 2026 ceasefire, significantly degraded enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. These actions, combined with ongoing May 2026 diplomatic efforts toward a preliminary agreement extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching nuclear talks on enriched uranium stockpiles, have extended Iran's estimated timeline to weaponization. U.S. assessments place Iran roughly 9-12 months from a potential device, with no confirmed weaponization activity or test preparations reported. Trader consensus at 92.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these verified setbacks and the absence of enrichment or test-related activity.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$196,569 Vol.
$196,569 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$196,569 Vol.
$196,569 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and follow-on operations through the February-April 2026 ceasefire, significantly degraded enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. These actions, combined with ongoing May 2026 diplomatic efforts toward a preliminary agreement extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching nuclear talks on enriched uranium stockpiles, have extended Iran's estimated timeline to weaponization. U.S. assessments place Iran roughly 9-12 months from a potential device, with no confirmed weaponization activity or test preparations reported. Trader consensus at 92.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these verified setbacks and the absence of enrichment or test-related activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$196,569শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and follow-on operations through the February-April 2026 ceasefire, significantly degraded enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. These actions, combined with ongoing May 2026 diplomatic efforts toward a preliminary agreement extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching nuclear talks on enriched uranium stockpiles, have extended Iran's estimated timeline to weaponization. U.S. assessments place Iran roughly 9-12 months from a potential device, with no confirmed weaponization activity or test preparations reported. Trader consensus at 92.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these verified setbacks and the absence of enrichment or test-related activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$196,569শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, including Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and follow-on operations through the February-April 2026 ceasefire, significantly degraded enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, according to IAEA assessments and U.S. intelligence. These actions, combined with ongoing May 2026 diplomatic efforts toward a preliminary agreement extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching nuclear talks on enriched uranium stockpiles, have extended Iran's estimated timeline to weaponization. U.S. assessments place Iran roughly 9-12 months from a potential device, with no confirmed weaponization activity or test preparations reported. Trader consensus at 92.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these verified setbacks and the absence of enrichment or test-related activity.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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