Recent satellite imagery from early October 2026 reveals significant renewed vehicle activity and reconstruction at Iran's Minzadayi nuclear weapons development site near Tehran, struck by Israel in March during prior conflict, underscoring efforts to rebuild capabilities after U.S. and Israeli strikes damaged enrichment plants at Natanz and Fordow. The IAEA has lacked access to Iranian facilities since mid-2025, with a September 2026 referral to the UN Security Council citing non-compliance and uncertainty over surviving 60% enriched uranium stockpiles. Ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic discussions, including demands for reduced enrichment capacity, reinforce trader consensus reflected in the 96.7% implied probability against a test before 2027. Factors that could shift this include undetected acceleration of rebuilding or sudden escalation in regional tensions.