The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and damaged military infrastructure underpins trader consensus against collapse before September 30. Security forces suppressed the widespread December 2025–January 2026 protests through lethal crackdowns and internet shutdowns, preventing mass defections or territorial fragmentation despite economic collapse and regional setbacks. As of August 2026, ongoing diplomatic engagement—including negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire breakdowns—reflects continued central authority and elite cohesion. Historical patterns of regime survival through sanctions, succession pressures, and external military pressure have reinforced the view that structural barriers to rapid overthrow remain high through year-end. Late-breaking escalation or unexpected internal fractures could theoretically shift dynamics, though none appear imminent within the narrow window.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
2% সম্ভাবনা
$1,573,166 Vol.
$1,573,166 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
2% সম্ভাবনা
$1,573,166 Vol.
$1,573,166 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and damaged military infrastructure underpins trader consensus against collapse before September 30. Security forces suppressed the widespread December 2025–January 2026 protests through lethal crackdowns and internet shutdowns, preventing mass defections or territorial fragmentation despite economic collapse and regional setbacks. As of August 2026, ongoing diplomatic engagement—including negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire breakdowns—reflects continued central authority and elite cohesion. Historical patterns of regime survival through sanctions, succession pressures, and external military pressure have reinforced the view that structural barriers to rapid overthrow remain high through year-end. Late-breaking escalation or unexpected internal fractures could theoretically shift dynamics, though none appear imminent within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,573,166শেষ তারিখ
Sep 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and damaged military infrastructure underpins trader consensus against collapse before September 30. Security forces suppressed the widespread December 2025–January 2026 protests through lethal crackdowns and internet shutdowns, preventing mass defections or territorial fragmentation despite economic collapse and regional setbacks. As of August 2026, ongoing diplomatic engagement—including negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire breakdowns—reflects continued central authority and elite cohesion. Historical patterns of regime survival through sanctions, succession pressures, and external military pressure have reinforced the view that structural barriers to rapid overthrow remain high through year-end. Late-breaking escalation or unexpected internal fractures could theoretically shift dynamics, though none appear imminent within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$1,573,166শেষ তারিখ
Sep 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and damaged military infrastructure underpins trader consensus against collapse before September 30. Security forces suppressed the widespread December 2025–January 2026 protests through lethal crackdowns and internet shutdowns, preventing mass defections or territorial fragmentation despite economic collapse and regional setbacks. As of August 2026, ongoing diplomatic engagement—including negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire breakdowns—reflects continued central authority and elite cohesion. Historical patterns of regime survival through sanctions, succession pressures, and external military pressure have reinforced the view that structural barriers to rapid overthrow remain high through year-end. Late-breaking escalation or unexpected internal fractures could theoretically shift dynamics, though none appear imminent within the narrow window.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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