Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including control of Mocha port and Perim (Mayyun) Island since mid-September 2026, give the group leverage over the strait’s narrow passages and surveillance of traffic. Their July 2026 embargo on Saudi-linked vessels triggered missile and drone strikes on tankers, sharply cutting Saudi crude transits through the corridor while overall vessel counts fell 15-47% from pre-crisis baselines depending on the metric. Security advisories maintain the highest risk level, with continued threats from missiles, drones, and small boats, yet commercial flows persist at reduced volumes—recent tracking shows roughly 27-30 daily transits amid rerouting, dark transits, and selective targeting. Shipping lines have begun restoring some Suez services despite elevated insurance costs and war-risk premiums. Key variables include further Houthi advances or Saudi responses, naval escorts, and any escalation tied to broader regional tensions involving Iran.