Houthi forces seized Perim Island, Mokha port, and nearby coastal positions in September 2026, establishing control over Yemen’s Red Sea shoreline and key vantage points overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This followed a July declaration of a maritime embargo on Saudi-linked vessels and produced measurable drops in tanker and cargo transits, with tracked volumes falling 15–26% below prior averages by early October. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched Operation Yemen Dawn in early October, claiming recapture of Dhubab and effective strait control; Houthi sources rejected those assertions, leaving territorial control contested. Shipping continues at reduced levels without a formal closure declaration, though incidents such as suspected attacks near the waterway persist. Market resolution hinges on verifiable, sustained interruption of commercial traffic rather than territorial claims alone.