Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by Iranian Revolutionary Guard threats in early June 2026 to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid the ongoing Iran conflict and Israel's regional actions, represent the primary catalyst shaping trader sentiment. With the Strait of Hormuz already effectively closed, any sustained disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would force rerouting of container and tanker traffic around the Cape of Good Hope, sharply elevating shipping costs, freight rates, and marine insurance premiums while pressuring global oil and LNG supplies. Markets price in these risks through elevated implied volatility in energy benchmarks and Treasury yields sensitive to inflation expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include potential escalation in U.S.-Iran talks or further Houthi actions, which could shift probabilities based on confirmed attacks versus de-escalation signals.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডবাব এল-মান্দেব প্রণালী কার্যকরভাবে... দ্বারা বন্ধ?
বাব এল-মান্দেব প্রণালী কার্যকরভাবে... দ্বারা বন্ধ?
$3,773,325 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
June 30
14%
September 30
26%
$3,773,325 Vol.
June 30
$358,891 Vol.
14%
September 30
$95,979 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by Iranian Revolutionary Guard threats in early June 2026 to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid the ongoing Iran conflict and Israel's regional actions, represent the primary catalyst shaping trader sentiment. With the Strait of Hormuz already effectively closed, any sustained disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would force rerouting of container and tanker traffic around the Cape of Good Hope, sharply elevating shipping costs, freight rates, and marine insurance premiums while pressuring global oil and LNG supplies. Markets price in these risks through elevated implied volatility in energy benchmarks and Treasury yields sensitive to inflation expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include potential escalation in U.S.-Iran talks or further Houthi actions, which could shift probabilities based on confirmed attacks versus de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM ET
ভলিউম
$3,773,325শেষ তারিখ
Apr 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by Iranian Revolutionary Guard threats in early June 2026 to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid the ongoing Iran conflict and Israel's regional actions, represent the primary catalyst shaping trader sentiment. With the Strait of Hormuz already effectively closed, any sustained disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would force rerouting of container and tanker traffic around the Cape of Good Hope, sharply elevating shipping costs, freight rates, and marine insurance premiums while pressuring global oil and LNG supplies. Markets price in these risks through elevated implied volatility in energy benchmarks and Treasury yields sensitive to inflation expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include potential escalation in U.S.-Iran talks or further Houthi actions, which could shift probabilities based on confirmed attacks versus de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ভলিউম
$3,773,325শেষ তারিখ
Apr 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 5, 2026, 8:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, driven by Iranian Revolutionary Guard threats in early June 2026 to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid the ongoing Iran conflict and Israel's regional actions, represent the primary catalyst shaping trader sentiment. With the Strait of Hormuz already effectively closed, any sustained disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would force rerouting of container and tanker traffic around the Cape of Good Hope, sharply elevating shipping costs, freight rates, and marine insurance premiums while pressuring global oil and LNG supplies. Markets price in these risks through elevated implied volatility in energy benchmarks and Treasury yields sensitive to inflation expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include potential escalation in U.S.-Iran talks or further Houthi actions, which could shift probabilities based on confirmed attacks versus de-escalation signals.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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