The 85.5% trader consensus against Iranian regime collapse before 2027 stems primarily from the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated institutional resilience following the December 2025–January 2026 protest wave and the subsequent U.S.-Israeli military campaign. Nationwide demonstrations triggered by economic collapse and inflation were suppressed through mass arrests, executions, and internet shutdowns, with security forces showing no major defections. After Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, the regime rapidly installed Mojtaba Khamenei and empowered IRGC hardliners, achieving a fragile ceasefire by early April. Recent limited exchanges in June 2026 have not fractured cohesion or produced leadership vacuums. Analysts highlight the absence of unified opposition structures or viable successors capable of systemic change within the short timeline, consistent with the regime’s historical pattern of enduring sanctions, protests, and external strikes.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডহ্যাঁ
$19,777,571 Vol.
$19,777,571 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
হ্যাঁ
$19,777,571 Vol.
$19,777,571 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 85.5% trader consensus against Iranian regime collapse before 2027 stems primarily from the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated institutional resilience following the December 2025–January 2026 protest wave and the subsequent U.S.-Israeli military campaign. Nationwide demonstrations triggered by economic collapse and inflation were suppressed through mass arrests, executions, and internet shutdowns, with security forces showing no major defections. After Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, the regime rapidly installed Mojtaba Khamenei and empowered IRGC hardliners, achieving a fragile ceasefire by early April. Recent limited exchanges in June 2026 have not fractured cohesion or produced leadership vacuums. Analysts highlight the absence of unified opposition structures or viable successors capable of systemic change within the short timeline, consistent with the regime’s historical pattern of enduring sanctions, protests, and external strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
ভলিউম
$19,777,571শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 85.5% trader consensus against Iranian regime collapse before 2027 stems primarily from the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated institutional resilience following the December 2025–January 2026 protest wave and the subsequent U.S.-Israeli military campaign. Nationwide demonstrations triggered by economic collapse and inflation were suppressed through mass arrests, executions, and internet shutdowns, with security forces showing no major defections. After Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, the regime rapidly installed Mojtaba Khamenei and empowered IRGC hardliners, achieving a fragile ceasefire by early April. Recent limited exchanges in June 2026 have not fractured cohesion or produced leadership vacuums. Analysts highlight the absence of unified opposition structures or viable successors capable of systemic change within the short timeline, consistent with the regime’s historical pattern of enduring sanctions, protests, and external strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$19,777,575শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 85.5% trader consensus against Iranian regime collapse before 2027 stems primarily from the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated institutional resilience following the December 2025–January 2026 protest wave and the subsequent U.S.-Israeli military campaign. Nationwide demonstrations triggered by economic collapse and inflation were suppressed through mass arrests, executions, and internet shutdowns, with security forces showing no major defections. After Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination on February 28, 2026, the regime rapidly installed Mojtaba Khamenei and empowered IRGC hardliners, achieving a fragile ceasefire by early April. Recent limited exchanges in June 2026 have not fractured cohesion or produced leadership vacuums. Analysts highlight the absence of unified opposition structures or viable successors capable of systemic change within the short timeline, consistent with the regime’s historical pattern of enduring sanctions, protests, and external strikes.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা