The Iranian regime's continuity through the 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign, the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei under IRGC influence anchors the near-certain trader consensus against collapse by June 30. Security forces have sustained control following earlier protest waves, while economic pressures from sanctions, currency issues, and naval restrictions have not produced coordinated nationwide upheaval or institutional breakdowns in the remaining days. Recent June exchanges of limited strikes and ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations over a memorandum of understanding further reflect regime cohesion rather than fracture. Historical patterns of durability under stress and the absence of verifiable large-scale defections or opposition advances reinforce this positioning. Sudden security apparatus defections or an unforeseen external trigger remain the only plausible pathways to alter the outcome before the deadline.