Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in Colby Donaldson at 100% implied probability for elimination in Survivor Season 50's April 1 episode, driven by the dramatic "Blood Moon" twist that split the merged tribe of 17 into three groups for a historic triple Tribal Council bloodbath. In the teal group alongside Coach Wade, Dee Valladares, Emily Flippen, and Cirie Fields, Colby's pre-existing foot injury left him vote-less and physically compromised, positioning him as the clear target despite his "honor and integrity" alliance pitch—Cirie and others cut the veteran threat unanimously with no idols or Shot in the Dark saves. Prior episodes built his frontrunner status through challenge struggles and strategic visibility, cementing the outcome post-airing. With the episode resolved, upset scenarios are nonexistent barring unprecedented production revisions, though next week's merge dynamics could accelerate further blindsides among the 14 remaining, including old vs. new era tensions.