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哪些政党将在日本提前选举中失去席位?

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哪些政党将在日本提前选举中失去席位?

$134,829 交易量

Feb 8, 2026
Polymarket

$134,829 交易量

Polymarket
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自民党

$27,298 交易量

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日本维新会

$3,356 交易量

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国民民主党

$7,828 交易量

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三圣党

$7,046 交易量

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令和

$11,215 交易量

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日本共产党

$2,879 交易量

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日本保守党

$23,615 交易量

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社会民主党

$29,543 交易量

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未来党

$22,049 交易量

General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party loses at least 1 seat in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For purposes of resolution, a party’s seat count will be compared to the number of seats that party held immediately prior to the dissolution of the House of Representatives for the 2026 Japanese snap election, which may differ from the number of seats won in the previous general election.

If the results of this election aren't known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the respective party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part.

This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).
交易量
$134,829
结束日期
Feb 8, 2026
市场开放时间
Jan 23, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
General elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party loses at least 1 seat in the Japanese House of Representatives (衆議院, Shūgiin) as a result of the next Japanese general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of resolution, a party’s seat count will be compared to the number of seats that party held immediately prior to the dissolution of the House of Representatives for the 2026 Japanese snap election, which may differ from the number of seats won in the previous general election. If the results of this election aren't known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the respective party, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Japanese government, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/) or e-Stat (Japan’s government statistics portal; https://www.e-stat.go.jp/).

已提议结果: 否

无争议

最终结果: 否

警惕外部链接哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"哪些政党将在日本提前选举中失去席位?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "令和" at 100%, followed by "日本共产党" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "哪些政党将在日本提前选举中失去席位?" has generated $134.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 23, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "哪些政党将在日本提前选举中失去席位?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "哪些政党将在日本提前选举中失去席位?" is "令和" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "日本共产党" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "哪些政党将在日本提前选举中失去席位?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.