Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 securing a commanding runner-up position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—trailing only Gemini 3.1 Pro's 1505 while far ahead of rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, xAI's Grok-4.20, and Chinese contenders such as DeepSeek or Alibaba's Qwen. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.6 release in early March, which demonstrated superior reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks amid a flurry of 12 new large language models that month, solidifying its competitive edge through crowdsourced battles and verified evaluations. With the market resolving imminently, only an improbable last-minute leaderboard refresh or surprise model drop from Google or OpenAI could challenge this near-certain outcome, though traders see negligible risk given stable rankings over the past week.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Anthropic 100.0%
阿里巴巴 <1%
DeepSeek <1%
谷歌 <1%
$1,392,610 交易量
$1,392,610 交易量
2026-03-31
阿里巴巴
否
DeepSeek
否
谷歌
否
百度
否
Moonshot
否
Anthropic
是
Z.ai
否
Mistral
否
OpenAI
否
xAI
否
美团
否
Anthropic 100.0%
阿里巴巴 <1%
DeepSeek <1%
谷歌 <1%
$1,392,610 交易量
$1,392,610 交易量
2026-03-31
阿里巴巴
$74,803 交易量
否
DeepSeek
$157,248 交易量
否
谷歌
$128,864 交易量
否
百度
$84,944 交易量
否
Moonshot
$66,159 交易量
否
Anthropic
$111,679 交易量
是
Z.ai
$65,125 交易量
否
Mistral
$579,016 交易量
否
OpenAI
$43,648 交易量
否
xAI
$61,415 交易量
否
美团
$19,709 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 securing a commanding runner-up position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—trailing only Gemini 3.1 Pro's 1505 while far ahead of rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, xAI's Grok-4.20, and Chinese contenders such as DeepSeek or Alibaba's Qwen. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.6 release in early March, which demonstrated superior reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks amid a flurry of 12 new large language models that month, solidifying its competitive edge through crowdsourced battles and verified evaluations. With the market resolving imminently, only an improbable last-minute leaderboard refresh or surprise model drop from Google or OpenAI could challenge this near-certain outcome, though traders see negligible risk given stable rankings over the past week.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$1,392,610结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 securing a commanding runner-up position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—trailing only Gemini 3.1 Pro's 1505 while far ahead of rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, xAI's Grok-4.20, and Chinese contenders such as DeepSeek or Alibaba's Qwen. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.6 release in early March, which demonstrated superior reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks amid a flurry of 12 new large language models that month, solidifying its competitive edge through crowdsourced battles and verified evaluations. With the market resolving imminently, only an improbable last-minute leaderboard refresh or surprise model drop from Google or OpenAI could challenge this near-certain outcome, though traders see negligible risk given stable rankings over the past week.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$1,392,610结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors Anthropic as having the second-best AI model by March 31, 2026, with Claude Opus 4.6 securing a commanding runner-up position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard at 1503 Elo—trailing only Gemini 3.1 Pro's 1505 while far ahead of rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.4, xAI's Grok-4.20, and Chinese contenders such as DeepSeek or Alibaba's Qwen. This positioning stems from Anthropic's recent Claude 4.6 release in early March, which demonstrated superior reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks amid a flurry of 12 new large language models that month, solidifying its competitive edge through crowdsourced battles and verified evaluations. With the market resolving imminently, only an improbable last-minute leaderboard refresh or surprise model drop from Google or OpenAI could challenge this near-certain outcome, though traders see negligible risk given stable rankings over the past week.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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