Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects S&P 500 (SPX) positioning near record highs above 5,800, fueled by robust Q2 earnings from megacap tech leaders like Nvidia and Meta exceeding analyst estimates on AI-driven revenue growth, alongside a cooling inflation trajectory with June CPI at 3.0% year-over-year. Market-implied odds incorporate 90% probability of at least two Fed rate cuts by March, supported by softening labor data including June nonfarm payrolls adding 206,000 jobs versus 190,000 expected. Key risks include sticky inflation or geopolitical tensions; watch July 30-31 FOMC meeting and Q3 earnings for catalysts that could push the index toward 6,000 or trigger pullback to 5,500 support.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$525,857 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
↑ $8,000
<1%
↑ 7,500美元
<1%
↑ 7,300美元
<1%
↑ 7,200美元
<1%
↑ 7,100
1%
↑ 7,000美元
1%
↑ 6,900美元
2%
↓ 6,400美元
74%
↓ 6,300美元
24%
↓ 6,200美元
14%
↓ 6,000美元
3%
↓ 5,000美元
<1%
$525,857 交易量
↑ $8,000
$0 交易量
<1%
↑ 7,500美元
$33,604 交易量
<1%
↑ 7,300美元
$72,687 交易量
<1%
↑ 7,200美元
$3,227 交易量
<1%
↑ 7,100
$15,341 交易量
1%
↑ 7,000美元
$17,920 交易量
1%
↑ 6,900美元
$14,852 交易量
2%
↓ 6,400美元
$51,716 交易量
74%
↓ 6,300美元
$86,731 交易量
24%
↓ 6,200美元
$31,945 交易量
14%
↓ 6,000美元
$41,762 交易量
3%
↓ 5,000美元
$156,072 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects S&P 500 (SPX) positioning near record highs above 5,800, fueled by robust Q2 earnings from megacap tech leaders like Nvidia and Meta exceeding analyst estimates on AI-driven revenue growth, alongside a cooling inflation trajectory with June CPI at 3.0% year-over-year. Market-implied odds incorporate 90% probability of at least two Fed rate cuts by March, supported by softening labor data including June nonfarm payrolls adding 206,000 jobs versus 190,000 expected. Key risks include sticky inflation or geopolitical tensions; watch July 30-31 FOMC meeting and Q3 earnings for catalysts that could push the index toward 6,000 or trigger pullback to 5,500 support.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
市场开放时间： Mar 3, 2026, 2:58 PM ET
交易量
$525,857结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 2:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects S&P 500 (SPX) positioning near record highs above 5,800, fueled by robust Q2 earnings from megacap tech leaders like Nvidia and Meta exceeding analyst estimates on AI-driven revenue growth, alongside a cooling inflation trajectory with June CPI at 3.0% year-over-year. Market-implied odds incorporate 90% probability of at least two Fed rate cuts by March, supported by softening labor data including June nonfarm payrolls adding 206,000 jobs versus 190,000 expected. Key risks include sticky inflation or geopolitical tensions; watch July 30-31 FOMC meeting and Q3 earnings for catalysts that could push the index toward 6,000 or trigger pullback to 5,500 support.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for March 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
交易量
$525,857结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 3, 2026, 2:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects S&P 500 (SPX) positioning near record highs above 5,800, fueled by robust Q2 earnings from megacap tech leaders like Nvidia and Meta exceeding analyst estimates on AI-driven revenue growth, alongside a cooling inflation trajectory with June CPI at 3.0% year-over-year. Market-implied odds incorporate 90% probability of at least two Fed rate cuts by March, supported by softening labor data including June nonfarm payrolls adding 206,000 jobs versus 190,000 expected. Key risks include sticky inflation or geopolitical tensions; watch July 30-31 FOMC meeting and Q3 earnings for catalysts that could push the index toward 6,000 or trigger pullback to 5,500 support.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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