Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a U.S. tariff rate on China in the 5–15% range on March 31, driven by the Trump administration's Section 122 baseline 10% ad valorem duty on imports—effective since February 24, 2026, after the Supreme Court invalidated prior IEEPA tariffs and late-2025 U.S.-China trade arrangements reduced peaks from over 100% to around 10%. No executive orders, USTR announcements, or scheduled escalations target this date, with March 11 Section 301 probes into Chinese excess capacity and forced labor facing hearings only in May. A potential U.S.-China summit starting March 31 could prompt discussions, but a last-minute tariff hike via executive action remains the primary scenario to challenge this positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于10
5–15% 97.6%
15–25% 2.1%
25–35% <1%
低于5% <1%
$1,142,021 交易量
$1,142,021 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
低于5%
<1%
5–15%
98%
15–25%
2%
25–35%
<1%
35%以上
<1%
5–15% 97.6%
15–25% 2.1%
25–35% <1%
低于5% <1%
$1,142,021 交易量
$1,142,021 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
低于5%
$80,162 交易量
<1%
5–15%
$261,891 交易量
98%
15–25%
$535,225 交易量
2%
25–35%
$144,861 交易量
<1%
35%以上
$119,902 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a U.S. tariff rate on China in the 5–15% range on March 31, driven by the Trump administration's Section 122 baseline 10% ad valorem duty on imports—effective since February 24, 2026, after the Supreme Court invalidated prior IEEPA tariffs and late-2025 U.S.-China trade arrangements reduced peaks from over 100% to around 10%. No executive orders, USTR announcements, or scheduled escalations target this date, with March 11 Section 301 probes into Chinese excess capacity and forced labor facing hearings only in May. A potential U.S.-China summit starting March 31 could prompt discussions, but a last-minute tariff hike via executive action remains the primary scenario to challenge this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
交易量
$1,142,021结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a U.S. tariff rate on China in the 5–15% range on March 31, driven by the Trump administration's Section 122 baseline 10% ad valorem duty on imports—effective since February 24, 2026, after the Supreme Court invalidated prior IEEPA tariffs and late-2025 U.S.-China trade arrangements reduced peaks from over 100% to around 10%. No executive orders, USTR announcements, or scheduled escalations target this date, with March 11 Section 301 probes into Chinese excess capacity and forced labor facing hearings only in May. A potential U.S.-China summit starting March 31 could prompt discussions, but a last-minute tariff hike via executive action remains the primary scenario to challenge this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
交易量
$1,142,021结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a U.S. tariff rate on China in the 5–15% range on March 31, driven by the Trump administration's Section 122 baseline 10% ad valorem duty on imports—effective since February 24, 2026, after the Supreme Court invalidated prior IEEPA tariffs and late-2025 U.S.-China trade arrangements reduced peaks from over 100% to around 10%. No executive orders, USTR announcements, or scheduled escalations target this date, with March 11 Section 301 probes into Chinese excess capacity and forced labor facing hearings only in May. A potential U.S.-China summit starting March 31 could prompt discussions, but a last-minute tariff hike via executive action remains the primary scenario to challenge this positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题