Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports at 97% implied probability, driven by the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based tariffs, prompting a shift to a uniform 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, now applying to China after prior IEEPA terminations. Recent analyses confirm effective rates around 10–10.5%, as reported by Yale Budget Lab and Wharton Budget Model through mid-March, with no subsequent executive orders or USTR announcements altering this structure. China's March 27 probe into U.S. trade practices signals retaliation risks but has not prompted U.S. adjustments. Late-breaking scenarios like a new presidential proclamation, Section 301 escalation, or bilateral deal could shift odds before March 31 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于10
5–15% 97.0%
15–25% 2.3%
25–35% <1%
低于5% <1%
$1,153,107 交易量
$1,153,107 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
低于5%
<1%
5–15%
97%
15–25%
2%
25–35%
<1%
35%以上
<1%
5–15% 97.0%
15–25% 2.3%
25–35% <1%
低于5% <1%
$1,153,107 交易量
$1,153,107 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
低于5%
$85,975 交易量
<1%
5–15%
$262,917 交易量
97%
15–25%
$537,012 交易量
2%
25–35%
$145,964 交易量
<1%
35%以上
$121,238 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports at 97% implied probability, driven by the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based tariffs, prompting a shift to a uniform 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, now applying to China after prior IEEPA terminations. Recent analyses confirm effective rates around 10–10.5%, as reported by Yale Budget Lab and Wharton Budget Model through mid-March, with no subsequent executive orders or USTR announcements altering this structure. China's March 27 probe into U.S. trade practices signals retaliation risks but has not prompted U.S. adjustments. Late-breaking scenarios like a new presidential proclamation, Section 301 escalation, or bilateral deal could shift odds before March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
市场开放时间： Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
交易量
$1,153,107结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports at 97% implied probability, driven by the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based tariffs, prompting a shift to a uniform 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, now applying to China after prior IEEPA terminations. Recent analyses confirm effective rates around 10–10.5%, as reported by Yale Budget Lab and Wharton Budget Model through mid-March, with no subsequent executive orders or USTR announcements altering this structure. China's March 27 probe into U.S. trade practices signals retaliation risks but has not prompted U.S. adjustments. Late-breaking scenarios like a new presidential proclamation, Section 301 escalation, or bilateral deal could shift odds before March 31 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate).
Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered.
This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
交易量
$1,153,107结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 20, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors a 5–15% U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports at 97% implied probability, driven by the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidating higher IEEPA-based tariffs, prompting a shift to a uniform 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, now applying to China after prior IEEPA terminations. Recent analyses confirm effective rates around 10–10.5%, as reported by Yale Budget Lab and Wharton Budget Model through mid-March, with no subsequent executive orders or USTR announcements altering this structure. China's March 27 probe into U.S. trade practices signals retaliation risks but has not prompted U.S. adjustments. Late-breaking scenarios like a new presidential proclamation, Section 301 escalation, or bilateral deal could shift odds before March 31 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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