Polymarket traders price a 99.5% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's year-to-date decline of approximately 7% through the March 27 close at 6,369, with quarter-end looming on March 31. Escalating Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, fueling inflation fears and a broad market selloff, compounded by tech sector weakness including Nvidia's post-earnings drop and fading early-2026 gains amid stretched valuations. This skin-in-the-game consensus leaves scant room for reversal, as a requisite 7.5% plus rally on the final trading day appears implausible barring unforeseen positive catalysts like de-escalation news or softer economic data. Historical precedents show Q1 losses often precede annual recoveries, but resolution hinges on last-minute price action.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于小于0% 99.5%
2-3% <1%
0-2% <1%
4-5% <1%
$352,042 交易量
$352,042 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
小于0%
100%
0-2%
<1%
2-3%
<1%
3-4%
<1%
4-5%
<1%
5-6%
<1%
6-8%
<1%
8-10%
<1%
10%以上
<1%
小于0% 99.5%
2-3% <1%
0-2% <1%
4-5% <1%
$352,042 交易量
$352,042 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
小于0%
$42,004 交易量
100%
0-2%
$15,142 交易量
<1%
2-3%
$19,480 交易量
<1%
3-4%
$43,303 交易量
<1%
4-5%
$67,447 交易量
<1%
5-6%
$46,183 交易量
<1%
6-8%
$59,118 交易量
<1%
8-10%
$34,929 交易量
<1%
10%以上
$24,437 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders price a 99.5% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's year-to-date decline of approximately 7% through the March 27 close at 6,369, with quarter-end looming on March 31. Escalating Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, fueling inflation fears and a broad market selloff, compounded by tech sector weakness including Nvidia's post-earnings drop and fading early-2026 gains amid stretched valuations. This skin-in-the-game consensus leaves scant room for reversal, as a requisite 7.5% plus rally on the final trading day appears implausible barring unforeseen positive catalysts like de-escalation news or softer economic data. Historical precedents show Q1 losses often precede annual recoveries, but resolution hinges on last-minute price action.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
市场开放时间： Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
交易量
$352,042结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders price a 99.5% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's year-to-date decline of approximately 7% through the March 27 close at 6,369, with quarter-end looming on March 31. Escalating Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, fueling inflation fears and a broad market selloff, compounded by tech sector weakness including Nvidia's post-earnings drop and fading early-2026 gains amid stretched valuations. This skin-in-the-game consensus leaves scant room for reversal, as a requisite 7.5% plus rally on the final trading day appears implausible barring unforeseen positive catalysts like de-escalation news or softer economic data. Historical precedents show Q1 losses often precede annual recoveries, but resolution hinges on last-minute price action.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.
Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)
If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.
If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).
交易量
$352,042结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 14, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 99.5% implied probability for negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, reflecting the index's year-to-date decline of approximately 7% through the March 27 close at 6,369, with quarter-end looming on March 31. Escalating Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, fueling inflation fears and a broad market selloff, compounded by tech sector weakness including Nvidia's post-earnings drop and fading early-2026 gains amid stretched valuations. This skin-in-the-game consensus leaves scant room for reversal, as a requisite 7.5% plus rally on the final trading day appears implausible barring unforeseen positive catalysts like de-escalation news or softer economic data. Historical precedents show Q1 losses often precede annual recoveries, but resolution hinges on last-minute price action.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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